Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, Chile.
Data Observatory Foundation, Santiago, Chile.
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 5;13(1):5579. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32372-3.
Daily precipitation extremes are projected to intensify with increasing moisture under global warming following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship at about [Formula: see text]. However, this increase is not spatially homogeneous. Projections in individual models exhibit regions with substantially larger increases than expected from the CC scaling. Here, we leverage theory and observations of the form of the precipitation probability distribution to substantially improve intermodel agreement in the medium to high precipitation intensity regime, and to interpret projected changes in frequency in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Besides particular regions where models consistently display super-CC behavior, we find substantial occurrence of super-CC behavior within a given latitude band when the multi-model average does not require that the models agree point-wise on location within that band. About 13% of the globe and almost 25% of the tropics (30% for tropical land) display increases exceeding 2CC. Over 40% of tropical land points exceed 1.5CC. Risk-ratio analysis shows that even small increases above CC scaling can have disproportionately large effects in the frequency of the most extreme events. Risk due to regional enhancement of precipitation scale increase by dynamical effects must thus be included in vulnerability assessment even if locations are imprecise.
随着全球变暖，按照克劳修斯-克拉珀龙（Clausius-Clapeyron）关系，每日降水极值预计会随着水汽的增加而加剧，约为[Formula: see text]。然而，这种增加在空间上并不均匀。个别模型的预测显示，某些地区的增幅远高于 CC 尺度预测。在这里，我们利用降水概率分布形式的理论和观测结果，大大提高了中高降水强度下模型间的一致性，并解释了耦合模式比较计划第六阶段中频率的预计变化。除了模型始终显示超 CC 行为的特定区域外，当多模型平均值不需要模型在该区域内逐点一致时，我们还发现给定纬度带内存在大量的超 CC 行为。全球约有 13%和近 25%的热带地区（热带陆地占 30%）的增幅超过 2CC。超过 40%的热带陆地点超过 1.5CC。风险比分析表明，即使 CC 尺度略有增加，也会对最极端事件的频率产生不成比例的大影响。因此，即使位置不精确，也必须在脆弱性评估中考虑到动力学效应引起的降水规模增加的区域增强带来的风险。
