Hussein Abdulbasit, Estifanos Solomon
School of Natural Resources Management and Environmental Sciences, College of Agriculture and Environmental Science, Haramaya University, P. O Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2023 Mar 28;9(4):e14927. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14927. eCollection 2023 Apr.
The main danger to biological diversity is the introduction of exotic species. () is a dangerous invasive species that has seriously harmed Ethiopia's ecology and economy. To properly inform decision-making about the control of this invasive species, it is crucial to investigate the projected invasion dynamics of in the country under the current climate change scenarios. Thus, the objective of this research was to evaluate the current distribution and relative importance of environmental variables for distribution, map the habitat's future suitability under scenarios of climate change and assess how habitat change would affect the species' future expected suitability in Ethiopia. The SDM R program was used to perform species distribution modeling (SDM) using 311 georeferenced presence records along with climatic variables. Predictive models were developed as an agreement model from six modeling methodologies to investigate the climatic suitability of target species for the years 2050 and 2070 under two shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5) in order to estimate the risks of climate change to the species. Under the current climatic scenario, only 9.26% (104939.3 km) and 4.05% (45850.6 km) of the country were moderately and highly suitable for species dispersion and invasion respectively. The remaining 86.69% (980648 km) was suitable for the distribution and invasion of the species. In 2050, under the SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5, the highly suitable range of is anticipated to expand by 2.30% and 1.76%, whereas the moderately suitable area is predicted to decrease by 1.66% and 2.69%, respectively. Under the SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 scenarios, the highly suitable region for the species is expected to grow by 1.47% and 0.65%, respectively, in 2070 compared to the current climatic conditions. This invasive species had already had a considerable negative influence on rangelands in a significant portion of the country with the current cover. Its continuing growth would exacerbate the issue, cause significant economic and environmental harm, and endanger the community's way of living. If preventive and efficient management methods are not taken seriously, the species will have considerable negative environmental impacts, which would be one of the biggest difficulties for pastoralism and their livelihoods.
生物多样性面临的主要威胁是外来物种的引入。（某物种）是一种危险的入侵物种，已严重损害埃塞俄比亚的生态和经济。为了在决策中为控制这种入侵物种提供恰当信息，在当前气候变化情景下研究该国该入侵物种的预测入侵动态至关重要。因此，本研究的目的是评估该物种当前的分布情况以及影响其分布的环境变量的相对重要性，绘制气候变化情景下该物种栖息地未来的适宜性图，并评估栖息地变化将如何影响该物种在埃塞俄比亚未来预期的适宜性。利用物种分布模型R程序，结合311个地理参考存在记录和气候变量进行物种分布建模（SDM）。通过六种建模方法构建预测模型作为一致性模型，以研究在两种共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景（SSP2 - 4.5和5 - 8.5）下目标物种在2050年和2070年的气候适宜性，从而估计气候变化对该物种的风险。在当前气候情景下，该国仅9.26%（104939.3平方千米）和4.05%（45850.6平方千米）的区域分别对该物种的扩散和入侵具有中度和高度适宜性。其余86.69%（980648平方千米）的区域适合该物种的分布和入侵。到2050年，在SSP2 - 4.5和5 - 8.5情景下，该物种的高度适宜范围预计将分别扩大2.30%和1.76%，而中度适宜区域预计将分别减少1.66%和2.69%。在SSP2 - 4.5和5 - 8.5情景下，与当前气候条件相比，预计到2070年该物种的高度适宜区域将分别增长1.47%和0.65%。这种入侵物种在该国目前覆盖的很大一部分地区已经对牧场产生了相当大的负面影响。其持续增长将加剧问题，造成重大的经济和环境损害，并危及社区的生活方式。如果不认真采取预防和有效的管理措施，该物种将产生相当大的负面环境影响，这将是畜牧业及其生计面临的最大困难之一。
