Bellard Celine, Jeschke Jonathan M, Leroy Boris, Mace Georgina M
Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research London UK.
Unité Biologie des organismes et écosystèmes aquatiques (BOREA UMR 7208) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle CNRS, IRD Sorbonne Universités, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Université de Caen Normandie, Université des Antilles Paris France.
Ecol Evol. 2018 May 4;8(11):5688-5700. doi: 10.1002/ece3.4098. eCollection 2018 Jun.
Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.
气候变化和生物入侵正威胁着全球的生物多样性和生态系统服务。如今，气候变化会影响生物入侵这一点已得到广泛认可。大量研究利用建模方法调查了与气候变化相关的外来入侵物种地理分布范围的预测变化及其他变化。然而，这些研究提供了相互矛盾的证据，尚未达成共识。我们对71份出版物中包含的423个建模案例研究进行了系统综述，这些研究考察了气候变化对这些物种的预测影响。我们区分了这些研究中使用的方法，并综合了它们的主要结果。我们的结果再次证实了气候变化在未来作为外来入侵物种分布驱动因素的主要作用。我们发现，文献在分类群方面存在偏向，倾向于植物和无脊椎动物，在研究的地球区域方面也存在偏向。尽管存在这些偏向，但我们发现，对于所研究的植物和脊椎动物来说，气候变化导致物种分布范围缩小的情况比其占据的总面积增加更为常见。这主要是因为海洋阻碍了陆地入侵者向极地扩散。相比之下，我们发现所研究的无脊椎动物和病原体的分布范围在气候变化后更有可能扩大。这些发现的一个重要警告是，研究人员很少考虑气候变化对运输、引入成功率或由此产生的影响。我们建议填补这些研究空白，并为未来的调查提出其他途径，以及在气候变化下管理入侵的机遇和挑战。
