Rothamsted Insect Survey, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK.
Protecting Crops and the Environment, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK.
Pest Manag Sci. 2024 May;80(5):2294-2305. doi: 10.1002/ps.7501. Epub 2023 May 1.
The pollen beetle (Brassicogethes aeneus) causes significant yield loss in oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Predicting population changes remains a scientific challenge, especially since its phenology and abundance varies dramatically over space and time. We used generalized additive models to investigate the long-term trends in pollen beetle annual, seasonal and monthly counts from Rothamsted 12.2 m suction-traps. We hypothesised that the beetle's abundance is positively related to the area of oilseed rape at a national and regional level. We used random forest models to investigate the inter-generational relationship within years.
Although Brassicogethes aeneus annual counts and area of oilseed rape grown in the UK both increased by 162% and 113%, respectively, over the time period studied, they were not significantly related. The size of the immigrating pollen beetle population (up to 1 June) can be explained both by the size of the population in the previous summer and prevailing winter temperatures, indicating a positive feedback mechanism.
Currently, pollen beetle numbers continue to increase in the UK, meaning that control issues may persist. However the relationship between counts in spring, during the susceptible phase of the crop, and counts in the previous summer indicates that it may be possible to forecast the counts of the spring migration of Brassicogethes aeneus a few months in advance using suction-trap samples, which could aid decisions on control options. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.
油菜花粉甲虫（Brassicogethes aeneus）会导致油菜（Brassica napus）大量减产。预测种群变化仍然是一个科学挑战，尤其是因为它的物候和丰度在空间和时间上都有很大的变化。我们使用广义加性模型来研究罗瑟斯特德 12.2 米吸气式诱捕器中油菜花粉甲虫年、季和月计数的长期趋势。我们假设，在国家和地区层面上，这种甲虫的丰度与油菜的种植面积呈正相关。我们使用随机森林模型来研究年内的世代间关系。
尽管在研究期间，英国的油菜花粉甲虫年计数和油菜种植面积分别增加了 162%和 113%，但它们之间没有显著的关系。截至 6 月 1 日，迁入的花粉甲虫种群的大小可以用前一个夏季的种群大小和盛行的冬季温度来解释，这表明存在正反馈机制。
目前，英国的花粉甲虫数量仍在继续增加，这意味着控制问题可能会持续存在。然而，春季（作物易受侵害阶段）的计数与前一个夏季的计数之间的关系表明，使用吸气式诱捕器样本可以提前几个月预测油菜花粉甲虫春季迁徙的计数，这有助于控制选项的决策。© 2023 作者。Pest Management Science 由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 出版，代表化学工业协会。
