Yang Yang, Zhang Linjia, Wu Laurie, Li Zhenlong
Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
International Business School Suzhou, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China.
J Travel Res. 2023 Mar;62(3):610-625. doi: 10.1177/00472875221077978. Epub 2022 Feb 12.
This study aims to investigate the moderating effects of various distance measures on the relationship between relative pandemic severity and bilateral tourism demand. After confirming its validity using actual hotel and air demand measures, we leveraged data from Google Destination Insights to understand daily bilateral tourism demand between 148 origin countries and 109 destination countries. Specifically, we estimated a series of fixed-effects panel data gravity models based on the year-over-year change in daily demand. Results show that a 10% increase in seven-day smoothed COVID-19 cases led to a 0.0658% decline in year-over-year demand change. The moderating distance measures include geographic, cultural, economic, social, and political distance. Results show that long-haul tourism demand was less affected by a destination's pandemic severity relative to tourists' place of origin. The moderating effect of national cultural dimensions indulgence versus constraints was also confirmed. Lastly, a discussion and implications for international destination marketing are provided.
本研究旨在探讨各种距离测度对相对疫情严重程度与双边旅游需求之间关系的调节作用。在使用实际酒店和航空需求测度确认其有效性后,我们利用谷歌目的地洞察的数据来了解148个客源国和109个目的地国之间的每日双边旅游需求。具体而言,我们基于每日需求的同比变化估计了一系列固定效应面板数据引力模型。结果表明,七天平滑后的新冠病例增加10%会导致同比需求变化下降0.0658%。调节距离测度包括地理、文化、经济、社会和政治距离。结果表明,相对于游客的原籍地,长途旅游需求受目的地疫情严重程度的影响较小。国家文化维度中放纵与克制的调节作用也得到了证实。最后,提供了对国际目的地营销的讨论和启示。
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