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气候变化与旅游需求:极端高温带来的风险?

Climate change and tourism demand: Risks for extreme heat?

作者信息

Chang Dingyi, Bu Naipeng, Zhang Ning, Xiao Honggen

机构信息

Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, China.

Center for Human Sustainability, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Aug 29;10(17):e37186. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e37186. eCollection 2024 Sep 15.


DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e37186
PMID:39296214
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11408048/
Abstract

Extremely high temperatures have become a major hurdle to tourists' experiences in various destinations. In this study, we present the first nationwide estimation of the temperature-tourism response function using a fine-grained panel dataset constructed by matching tourism data and daily meteorological datasets for 280 cities from 2005 to 2019 in China. Results show a non-linear relationship between temperature and tourism employing the temperature bins method, which is not sensitive to response equations. In addition, we conduct a rich heterogeneity analysis in the article to further analyse the effects of other external conditions on the temperature-tourism relationship, including the destination's level of tourism economic development, population, infrastructure development, and tourism resource endowment. We also observed that increasing summer temperatures result in decreased tourism arrivals and revenue, while rising autumn temperatures lead to increased tourism arrivals and revenue. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between temperature dynamics and tourism patterns, offering insights into destination management and adaptation strategies.

摘要

极端高温已成为游客在各个目的地旅游体验的主要障碍。在本研究中,我们利用2005年至2019年中国280个城市的旅游数据与每日气象数据集相匹配构建的细粒度面板数据集,首次对全国范围内的气温-旅游响应函数进行了估计。结果表明,采用温度区间法时,温度与旅游之间存在非线性关系,且该方法对响应方程不敏感。此外,我们在文中进行了丰富的异质性分析,以进一步分析其他外部条件对气温-旅游关系的影响,包括目的地的旅游经济发展水平、人口、基础设施发展以及旅游资源禀赋。我们还观察到,夏季气温升高会导致旅游到访量和收入下降,而秋季气温上升则会导致旅游到访量和收入增加。本研究有助于更深入地理解温度动态与旅游模式之间的复杂关系,为目的地管理和适应策略提供见解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/9c7796e4567f/gr7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/af834d8e535f/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/f718deefe304/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/718a9b0f447c/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/35875e64aeb8/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/fea4f2250001/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/df83da6ee79a/gr6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/9c7796e4567f/gr7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/af834d8e535f/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/f718deefe304/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/718a9b0f447c/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/35875e64aeb8/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/fea4f2250001/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/df83da6ee79a/gr6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9780/11408048/9c7796e4567f/gr7.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Climate change and tourism demand: Risks for extreme heat?

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[3]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks.

Lancet. 2021-8-21

[2]
Spatial distribution of cumulative impact on terrestrial ecosystem of the Fildes Peninsula, Antarctica.

J Environ Manage. 2021-2-1

[3]
Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019-8-12

[4]
Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets.

Nature. 2018-5-23

[5]
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

Nature. 2015-10-21

[6]
The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies.

Mar Pollut Bull. 2015-10-9

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