Department of Clinical Psychological Science, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
National Police Netherlands, Working Group Facial Biometrics, Netherlands.
PLoS One. 2023 Apr 11;18(4):e0284205. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284205. eCollection 2023.
Post-decision confidence from witnesses who make a positive identification decision can serve as a valuable indicator of identification accuracy under certain conditions. International best-practice guidelines therefore recommend asking witnesses to indicate their confidence following a selection from a lineup. Three experiments that used Dutch identification protocols, however, reported no significant post-decision confidence-accuracy association. To examine this conflict between the international and the Dutch literature, we tested the strength of the post-decision confidence-accuracy relationship for lineups that followed Dutch protocol in two ways: we conducted an experiment and re-analyzed two experiments that implemented Dutch lineup protocols. As expected, the post-decision confidence-accuracy relationship was strong for positive identifications and weak for negative identification decisions in our experiment. The re-analysis of the pre-existing data showed a strong effect for positive identification decisions of participants up to the age of 40 years. For exploratory purposes, we also tested the confidence-accuracy relationship between lineup administrators' perception of witnesses' confidence and eyewitness identification accuracy. In our experiment, the relationship was strong for choosers and weak for nonchoosers. The re-analysis of pre-existing data showed no correlation between confidence and accuracy, unless we excluded adults over 40 of age. We recommend adapting the Dutch identification guidelines to reflect the current and previous findings on the post-decision confidence-accuracy relationship.
在某些条件下,做出肯定识别决策的证人的决策后信心可以作为识别准确性的有价值指标。因此,国际最佳实践准则建议要求证人在选择列队后表明其信心。然而,三项使用荷兰识别协议的实验报告称,决策后信心与准确性之间没有显著关联。为了检验国际和荷兰文献之间的这种冲突,我们以两种方式检验了遵循荷兰协议的列队的决策后信心与准确性之间的关系强度:我们进行了一项实验,并重新分析了实施荷兰列队协议的两项实验。正如预期的那样,在我们的实验中,对于积极识别决策,决策后信心与准确性之间的关系很强,而对于消极识别决策则很弱。对现有数据的重新分析表明,对于 40 岁以下的参与者,积极识别决策的效果很强。出于探索性目的,我们还测试了线人管理员对证人信心的感知与目击证人识别准确性之间的信心准确性关系。在我们的实验中,对于选择者来说,这种关系很强,而对于非选择者来说则很弱。对现有数据的重新分析表明,除非排除 40 岁以上的成年人,否则信心与准确性之间没有相关性。我们建议调整荷兰识别准则,以反映当前和以前关于决策后信心与准确性关系的发现。