School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, 430070, China; Research Institute of Digital Governance and Management Decision Innovation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, 430070, China.
School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, 430070, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Aug 1;339:117845. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117845. Epub 2023 Apr 11.
Given the unstoppable forces behind regional economic integration trends, damages from a flood disaster in a specific area will influence correlative cities through industrial linkages and make economic systems more vulnerable. Assessing urban vulnerability is an essential part of flood prevention and mitigation, and also a hot topic of recent research. Therefore, this study (1) constructed a mixed multiregional input-output (mixed-MRIO) model to explore ripple effects on other regions and sectors when production in a flooded area is constrained, and (2) applied this model to characterize the economic vulnerability of cities and sectors in Hubei Province, China by simulation. First, various hypothetical flood disaster scenarios are simulated to reveal the ripple effects of different events. The composite vulnerability is assessed by analyzing economic-loss sensitivity rankings across scenarios. Then, the model is applied to the case of a 50-year return period flood that occurred in Enshi City, Hubei Province, on July 17, 2020 to empirically verify the usefulness of such a simulation-based approach in evaluating vulnerability. The results indicate vulnerability is higher in Wuhan City, Yichang City, and Xiangyang City and for three manufacturing sector types: livelihood-related manufacturing, raw materials manufacturing, and processing and assembly manufacturing. Such cities and industrial sectors with high vulnerability will significantly benefit from prioritization in flood management.
鉴于区域经济一体化趋势不可阻挡，特定地区洪灾造成的损失将通过产业关联影响相关城市，使经济系统更加脆弱。评估城市脆弱性是防洪减灾的重要组成部分，也是近期研究的热点。因此，本研究（1）构建了一个混合多区域投入产出（混合-MRIO）模型，以探讨洪水地区生产受限对其他地区和部门的连锁反应；（2）通过模拟，应用该模型来描述中国湖北省城市和部门的经济脆弱性。首先，模拟各种假设的洪灾情景，以揭示不同事件的连锁反应。通过分析不同情景下经济损失敏感度排名来评估综合脆弱性。然后，将该模型应用于 2020 年 7 月 17 日发生在湖北省恩施市的 50 年一遇洪水的案例，以实证验证基于模拟的方法在评估脆弱性方面的有效性。结果表明，武汉市、宜昌市和襄阳市以及生计相关制造业、原材料制造业和加工装配制造业这三种制造业类型的脆弱性较高。这些脆弱性较高的城市和产业部门将从洪水管理的优先级中显著受益。
