Thomas Douglas, Fung Juan
National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, Gaithersburg, MD.
Energy Econ. 2022 Oct;114. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106314.
Power outages in the U.S. affect many firms' economic activity and are likely to result in downstream supply chain disruptions. This paper examines the impact of power disturbances in the supply chain for four industries: manufacturing, durable goods manufacturing, nondurable goods manufacturing, and total private industry. This indirect impact includes the losses at downstream firms that might not receive supplies on time due to disturbances at their suppliers' facilities. This is measured using observations of value added before and after power disturbances rather than the more common method of modeling an economy. This paper tests four hypotheses related to the effect of power disturbances with all four of them being supported by the model results. Further, using simulation we estimate the indirect costs of power disturbances. The results suggest that power disturbances have a statistically significant effect on gross domestic product (i.e., value added), particularly in manufacturing where power disturbances in the supply chain had a statistically significant effect. While this industry represents 12.8 % of private industry value added, it experiences 36.8 % of the supply chain losses due to power disturbances, as suggested by the results of the simulation. Power disturbances in the supply chain affected all four industries with nondurable goods being affected the most. This creates a significant disconnect between the stakeholder that invests in reliability in the power grid and the stakeholders that experience the bulk of losses.
美国的停电影响了许多公司的经济活动，并可能导致下游供应链中断。本文考察了停电对四个行业供应链的影响：制造业、耐用品制造业、非耐用品制造业和整个私营行业。这种间接影响包括下游企业可能因供应商设施停电而无法按时收到供应品所遭受的损失。这是通过观察停电前后的增加值来衡量的，而不是采用更常见的经济建模方法。本文检验了与停电影响相关的四个假设，模型结果均支持这四个假设。此外，我们通过模拟估计了停电的间接成本。结果表明，停电对国内生产总值（即增加值）有统计学上的显著影响，特别是在制造业，供应链停电对其有统计学上的显著影响。虽然该行业占私营行业增加值的12.8%，但模拟结果表明，它遭受了因停电导致的36.8%的供应链损失。供应链停电影响了所有四个行业，其中非耐用品制造业受影响最大。这在投资于电网可靠性的利益相关者和遭受大部分损失的利益相关者之间造成了显著脱节。
