Department of Applied Mathematics, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, 300, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC.
Department of Applied Mathematics, National University of Kaohsiung, 81148, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC.
J Math Biol. 2023 Apr 19;86(5):77. doi: 10.1007/s00285-023-01911-x.
A discrete epidemic model with vaccination and limited medical resources is proposed to understand its underlying dynamics. The model induces a nonsmooth two dimensional map that exhibits a surprising array of dynamical behavior including the phenomena of the forward-backward bifurcation and period doubling route to chaos with feasible parameters in an invariant region. We demonstrate, among other things, that the model generates the above described phenomena as the transmission rate or the basic reproduction number of the disease gradually increases provided that the immunization rate is low, the vaccine failure rate is high and the medical resources are limited. Finally, the numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our main results.
提出了一个具有接种和有限医疗资源的离散传染病模型,以了解其潜在的动力学。该模型诱导出一个非光滑的二维映射,在不变区域内,具有可行的参数,展示出了令人惊讶的一系列动力学行为,包括前向-后向分岔和倍周期通向混沌的现象。我们证明,在其他方面,当传染病的传播率或基本再生数逐渐增加,而接种率较低、疫苗失效率较高且医疗资源有限时,模型会产生上述现象。最后,提供了数值模拟来阐明我们的主要结果。