Yoo Dae-Sung, Cho Ki-Hyun, Hong Seong-Keun, Kang Hae-Eun, Park Jee-Yong
Veterinary Epidemiology Division, Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, Gimcheon, Republic of Korea.
College of Veterinary Medicine, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Republic of Korea.
Front Vet Sci. 2023 Apr 3;10:994749. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2023.994749. eCollection 2023.
Since 2018, Asian countries have been affected by the African swine fever (ASF) virus, with major socioeconomic consequences. Moreover, the number of people traveling in Asian countries has been increasing, leading to an inevitable increase in the risk of ASF spread through livestock products carried by travelers. China and South Korea have close geo-economic ties and numerous international travelers. After the ASF outbreak in China in 2018, many illegally imported pig products (IIPPs) that were confiscated from travelers from China at the port of entry in South Korea tested positive for ASF. The detection of ASF virus (ASFV)-positive IIPPs highlights the need to further assess the risk of incursion by travelers and review the existing prevention strategies. Here, we investigated the temporal relationship between ASF outbreaks in China and the detection of ASFV-positive IIPPs in randomly confiscated samples from all ports of entry, such as flights and ships to South Korea, from 2018 to 2019 using a cross-correlation analysis. Based on the significantly correlated temporal lags between the bivariate time-series data, a risk assessment model, using the Bayesian framework, was built to estimate the distribution of the parameters for the risk assessment model and the monthly probability of ASF being introduced IIPPs from China to South Korea. ASF outbreaks in China were significantly associated with the detection of ASFV-positive IIPPs in South Korea 5 months later. Hence, the monthly probability of ASFV-infected pig products imported from China a traveler to South Korea was estimated to be 2.00 × 10, corresponding to a 0.98 mean monthly probability of at least one ASF-infected pig product arriving at ports of entry travelers, from 2018 to 2019. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the risk of ASF introduction pig products carried by international travelers to all ports from neighboring countries in the Asian region using commonly exchanged observed data. The data presented in this study can be used to refine the intervention strategies to combat the spread of transboundary animal diseases.
自2018年以来，亚洲国家受到非洲猪瘟（ASF）病毒的影响，造成了重大的社会经济后果。此外，亚洲国家的旅客数量一直在增加，这导致通过旅客携带的畜产品传播ASF的风险必然上升。中国和韩国有着密切的地缘经济联系和众多国际旅客。2018年中国爆发ASF疫情后，在韩国入境口岸从中国旅客处没收的许多非法进口猪产品（IIPPs）检测出ASF呈阳性。ASF病毒（ASFV）阳性IIPPs的检测凸显了进一步评估旅客入境风险并审查现有预防策略的必要性。在此，我们使用互相关分析研究了2018年至2019年中国ASF疫情与从所有入境口岸（如飞往韩国的航班和轮船）随机没收的样本中ASFV阳性IIPPs检测之间的时间关系。基于双变量时间序列数据之间显著相关的时间滞后，构建了一个使用贝叶斯框架的风险评估模型，以估计风险评估模型参数的分布以及ASF从中国传入韩国IIPPs的月度概率。中国的ASF疫情与5个月后韩国检测到ASFV阳性IIPPs显著相关。因此，2018年至2019年，从中国前往韩国的旅客携带的感染ASFV猪产品的月度概率估计为2.00×10，相当于至少有一份感染ASF的猪产品通过旅客抵达入境口岸的平均月度概率为0.98。据我们所知，本研究首次尝试使用常见的交换观测数据估计国际旅客携带猪产品将ASF引入亚洲地区邻国所有口岸的风险。本研究中呈现的数据可用于完善应对跨界动物疾病传播的干预策略。
