COVID-19 epidemic phases and morbidity in different areas of Chinese mainland, 2020.

BACKGROUND

In the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese mainland once effectively controlled the epidemic, but COVID-19 eventually spread faster and faster in the world. The purpose of this study is to clarify the differences in the epidemic data of COVID-19 in different areas and phases in Chinese mainland in 2020, and to analyze the possible factors affecting the occurrence and development of the epidemic.

METHODS

We divided the Chinese mainland into areas I, I and III, and divided the epidemic process into phases I to IV: limited cases, accelerated increase, decelerated increase and containment phases. We also combined phases II and III as outbreak phase. The epidemic data included the duration of different phases, the numbers of confirmed cases, asymptomatic infections, and the proportion of imported cases from abroad.

RESULTS

In area I, II and III, only area I has a Phase I, and the Phase II and III of area I are longer. In Phase IV, there is a 17-day case clearing period in area I, while that in area II and III are 2 and 0 days, respectively. In phase III or the whole outbreak phase, the average daily increase of confirmed cases in area I was higher than that in areas II and III ( = 0.009 and = 0.001 in phase III; = 0.034 and = 0.002 in the whole outbreak phase), and the average daily in-hospital cases were most in area I and least in area III ( = 0.000, = 0.000, and = 0.000 in phase III; = 0.000, = 0.000, and = 0.009 in the whole outbreak phase). The average number of daily in-hospital COVID-19 cases in phase III was more than that in phase II in each area ( = 0.000, = 0.000, and = 0.001). In phase IV, from March 18, 2020 to January 1, 2021, the increase of confirmed cases in area III was higher than areas I and II (both = 0.000), and the imported cases from abroad in Chinese mainland accounted for more than 55-61%. From June 16 to July 2, 2020, the number of new asymptomatic infections in area III was higher than that in area II ( = ), while there was zero in area I. From July 3, 2020 to January 1, 2021, the increased COVID-19 cases in area III were 3534, while only 14 and 0, respectively, in areas I and II.

CONCLUSIONS

The worst epidemic areas in Chinese mainland before March 18, 2020 and after June 15, 2020 were area I and area III, respectively, and area III had become the main battlefield for Chinese mainland to fight against imported epidemic since March 18, 2020. In Wuhan, human COVID-19 infection might occur before December 8, 2019, while the outbreak might occur before January 16 or even 10, 2020. Insufficient understanding of COVID-19 hindered the implementation of early effective isolation measures, leading to COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, and strict isolation measures were effective in controlling the epidemic. The import of foreign COVID-19 cases has made it difficult to control the epidemic of area III. When humans are once again faced with potentially infectious new diseases, it is appropriate to first and foremost take strict quarantine measures as soon as possible, and mutual cooperation between regions should be explored to combat the epidemic.