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中国吉林省 COVID-19 传播的三个阶段的流行病学聚集特征。

Epidemiological clustered characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in three phases of transmission in Jilin Province, China.

机构信息

School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710061, China.

Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, 130062, Jilin Province, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Jan 19;18(1):e0279879. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0279879. eCollection 2023.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0279879
PMID:36656818
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9851530/
Abstract

The current epidemiological status of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in China is being explored to prevent and control the localized dissemination of aggregated outbreaks. This study analyzed the characteristics of new outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at three stages of aggregated outbreaks in Jilin Province, China, to provide a reference for the prevention and control of aggregated outbreaks. Case information were collected from all patients in Jilin Province from January 12, 2020 to the present. The epidemic was divided into three stages according to the time of onset. The first stage comprised 97 cases reported from January 12, 2020 to February 19, 2020, during which 17 aggregated outbreaks occurred. The second comprised 43 cases reported from April 25, 2020 and May 23, 2020, involving one aggregated outbreak. The third comprised 435 cases reported on January 10, 2021 and February 9, 2021, involving one aggregated outbreak. The relationship between aggregated and non-aggregated cases in the first phase of the outbreak and the difference between imported and local cases during the aggregated outbreak were assess using statistical analysis, and the differences in the baseline information between the three phases were analyzed. The incubation periods of the three phases were 10 days, 8 days, and 5 days. The number of aggregated epidemic events in Jilin Province tended to increase and then decrease over time. The clustered events in Jilin Province were divided into four categories: household contact (14 times, 51 cases); household contact and public places (one time, three cases); household contact, public places, and gatherings (one time, six cases); and household contact, public places, gatherings, and work (three times, 495 cases). Clustered events occurred mainly between January 22, 2020, and February 4, 2020. Among all cases in the first phase of the outbreak, the method of detection and the time from diagnosis to discharge were longer in aggregated cases than in non-aggregated cases, and that the source of infection and renewal cases were more frequent and more likely to be detected in the outpatient clinics during aggregated outbreaks than the imported cases. The second phase of the epidemic showed significant spatial variability (Moran's I<0, P<0.05). The third stage of the epidemic occurred in a higher proportion of individuals aged 50-90 years and within a shorter incubation period compared with the first two stages. The current focus of prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic in Jilin Province is to strictly implement the restrictions on gatherings and to perform timely screening and isolation of close contacts of infectious sources while strengthening the supervision of the inflow of people from outside the region. Simultaneously, more targeted prevention and control measures can be implemented for different age groups and occupations.

摘要

目前,中国正在探索新的冠状肺炎疫情的流行病学现状,以预防和控制局部聚集性疫情的传播。本研究分析了中国吉林省聚集性疫情三个阶段 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)新暴发的特征,为聚集性疫情的防控提供参考。从 2020 年 1 月 12 日至目前,从吉林省所有患者中收集病例信息。根据发病时间,将疫情分为三个阶段。第一阶段包括 2020 年 1 月 12 日至 2 月 19 日报告的 97 例,期间发生了 17 起聚集性疫情。第二阶段包括 2020 年 4 月 25 日和 5 月 23 日报告的 43 例,涉及一起聚集性疫情。第三阶段包括 2021 年 1 月 10 日和 2 月 9 日报告的 435 例,涉及一起聚集性疫情。采用统计学分析方法,评估了第一阶段暴发中聚集性病例与非聚集性病例之间的关系以及聚集性暴发期间输入性病例与本地病例之间的差异,并分析了三个阶段之间的基线信息差异。三个阶段的潜伏期分别为 10 天、8 天和 5 天。吉林省聚集性疫情事件数量呈先增后减趋势。吉林省的聚集性事件分为四类:家庭接触(14 次,51 例);家庭接触和公共场所(1 次,3 例);家庭接触、公共场所和聚会(1 次,6 例);家庭接触、公共场所、聚会和工作(3 次,495 例)。聚集事件主要发生在 2020 年 1 月 22 日至 2 月 4 日之间。在暴发第一阶段的所有病例中,聚集性病例的检测方法和从诊断到出院的时间长于非聚集性病例,而聚集性暴发期间门诊的感染源和更新病例更为频繁,更容易被发现。第二阶段的疫情显示出显著的空间变异性(Moran's I<0,P<0.05)。与前两个阶段相比,第三阶段的疫情发生在年龄在 50-90 岁之间的个体中所占比例更高,潜伏期更短。目前,吉林省 COVID-19 疫情防控的重点是严格执行聚集限制,及时筛查和隔离感染源的密切接触者,同时加强对境外输入人员的监管。同时,可以针对不同年龄组和职业实施更有针对性的防控措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/76a5/9851530/0f68f5bae726/pone.0279879.g005.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/76a5/9851530/0f68f5bae726/pone.0279879.g005.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/76a5/9851530/6c7c5dd3a395/pone.0279879.g002.jpg
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