Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.
Risk Analytics Division, Ipsos Public Affairs, Washington, DC 20006.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 May 2;120(18):e2220160120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2220160120. Epub 2023 Apr 24.
War is the cause of tremendous human suffering. To reduce such harm, governments have developed tools to alert civilians of imminent threats. Whether these systems are effective remains largely unknown. We study the introduction of an innovative smartphone application that notifies civilians of impending military operations developed in coordination with the Ukrainian government after the Russian invasion. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in the timing of more than 3,000 alerts to study civilian sheltering behavior, using high-frequency geolocation pings tied to 17 million mobile devices, 60% of the connected population in Ukraine. We find that, overall, civilians respond sharply to alerts, quickly seeking shelter. These rapid postalert changes in population movement attenuate over time, however, in a manner that cannot be explained by adaptive sheltering behavior or calibration to the signal quality of alerts. Responsiveness is weakest when civilians have been living under an extended state of emergency, consistent with the presence of an alert fatigue effect. Our results suggest that 35 to 45% of observed civilian casualties were avoided because of public responsiveness to the messaging system. Importantly, an additional 8 to 15% of civilian casualties observed during the later periods of the conflict could have been avoided with sustained public responsiveness to government alerts. We provide evidence that increasing civilians' risk salience through targeted government messaging can increase responsiveness, suggesting a potential policy lever for sustaining public engagement during prolonged episodes of conflict.
战争是人类苦难的巨大根源。为了减少这种伤害,政府已经开发出一些工具来警告平民即将面临的威胁。这些系统是否有效在很大程度上仍然未知。我们研究了在俄罗斯入侵后,与乌克兰政府协调开发的一种创新智能手机应用程序,该应用程序可以通知平民即将进行的军事行动。我们利用超过 3000 次警报的发布时间的准实验性变化,使用与 1700 万台移动设备相关联的高频地理定位信息,对 60%的乌克兰联网人口进行了平民避难行为研究。我们发现,总的来说,平民对警报反应迅速,迅速寻求避难。然而,这些警报后人口流动的快速变化会随着时间的推移而减弱,无法用适应性避难行为或对警报信号质量的校准来解释。当平民长期处于紧急状态时,反应能力最弱,这与警报疲劳效应的存在一致。我们的结果表明,由于公众对信息系统的反应,避免了 35%至 45%的观察到的平民伤亡。重要的是,如果公众持续对政府警报做出反应,冲突后期观察到的 8%至 15%的平民伤亡本可以避免。我们提供的证据表明,通过有针对性的政府信息传递增加平民的风险意识,可以提高反应能力,这为在长期冲突期间维持公众参与提供了一个潜在的政策杠杆。