Institute of Entomology, College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, 94 Weijin Road, Tianjin 300071, China.
J Econ Entomol. 2023 Jun 13;116(3):761-770. doi: 10.1093/jee/toad058.
The redbanded stink bug, Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood, 1837), is a highly destructive soybean pest native to the Neotropical Region. In the past 60 yr, P. guildinii has been observed to expand its distribution in North and South America, causing significant soybean yield losses. In order to predict the future distribution direction of P. guildinii and create an effective pest control strategy, we projected the potential global distribution of P. guildinii using 2 different emission scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 126 and 585, and 3 Earth system models, with the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt). Then, the predicted distribution areas of P. guildinii were jointly analyzed with the main soybean-producing areas to assess the impact for different soybean region. Our results showed that temperature is the main environmental factor limiting the distribution of P. guildinii. Under present climate conditions, all continents except Antarctica have suitable habitat for P. guildinii. These suitable habitats overlap with approximately 45.11% of the total global cultivated soybean areas. Moreover, P. guildinii was predicted to expand its range in the future, particularly into higher latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. Countries, in particular the United States, where soybean is widely available, would face a management challenge under global warming. In addition, China and India are also high-risk countries that may be invaded and should take strict quarantine measures. The maps of projected distribution produced in this study may prove useful in the future management of P. guildinii and the containment of its disruptive effects.
红带扁股盲蝽，Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood, 1837)，原产于新热带地区，是一种极具破坏力的大豆害虫。在过去的 60 年中，观察到 P. guildinii 在北美洲和南美洲的分布范围不断扩大，导致大豆产量显著下降。为了预测 P. guildinii 的未来分布方向并制定有效的害虫控制策略，我们使用两种不同的排放情景（共享社会经济途径 126 和 585）和 3 个地球系统模型，即最大熵生态位模型（MaxEnt），预测了 P. guildinii 的潜在全球分布。然后，将 P. guildinii 的预测分布区域与主要的大豆产区进行联合分析，以评估不同大豆产区的影响。我们的研究结果表明，温度是限制 P. guildinii 分布的主要环境因素。在当前气候条件下，除南极洲以外的所有大陆都有适合 P. guildinii 的栖息地。这些适宜栖息地与全球大豆种植总面积的约 45.11%重叠。此外，预计 P. guildinii 在未来的分布范围将会扩大，特别是在北半球的高纬度地区。在全球变暖的情况下，大豆广泛种植的国家，特别是美国，将面临管理上的挑战。此外，中国和印度也是高风险国家，可能会受到入侵，应采取严格的检疫措施。本研究中预测的分布地图将来可能有助于 P. guildinii 的管理和控制其破坏性影响。
