Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China.
Provincial Special Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Insect Resources of Guizhou, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China.
J Insect Sci. 2024 May 1;24(3). doi: 10.1093/jisesa/ieae053.
Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.
气候变化是重塑入侵物种分布的重要因素。原产于北美的 Metcalfa pruinosa（Say 1830）（半翅目：平蝽科）已入侵其他大陆，对各种农作物和人类居住环境构成严重威胁。了解基于气候条件的 M. pruinosa 分布情况是防止其进一步入侵的关键第一步。因此，基于其发生记录和相关环境变量，我们开发了一个 Maxent 模型，以预测该物种在当前和未来全球范围内的适宜分布区。该模型表现出色，平均接收者操作特征曲线下面积和真实技能统计值分别为 0.9329 和 0.926。该模型还表明，年降水量（Bio12）和最热月最高温度（Bio5）是限制 M. pruinosa 分布的关键环境变量。此外，该模型显示，目前全球适宜区面积为 1.01×107 km2，中国南部、南欧和美国东部被预测为后两个地区的主要和高度适宜区。在未来气候情景下，该区域预计将向北扩大。本研究结果有助于我们了解气候变化对 M. pruinosa 分布的影响，并为政府制定适当的害虫管理策略提供帮助，包括全球监测和严格的检疫措施。
