You Shibing, Liu Tingyi, Zhang Miao, Zhao Xue, Dong Yizhe, Wu Bi, Wang Yanzhen, Li Juan, Wei Xinjie, Shi Baofeng
School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
College of Economics & Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.
Nat Food. 2021 Oct;2(10):802-808. doi: 10.1038/s43016-021-00362-1. Epub 2021 Sep 27.
African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China-the world's largest producer and consumer of pork. Here we use an input-output model, partial equilibrium theory and a substitution indicator approach for handling missing data to develop a systematic valuation framework for assessing economic losses caused by ASF outbreaks in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We show that the total economic loss accounts for 0.78% of China's gross domestic product in 2019, with impacts experienced in almost all economic sectors through links to the pork industry and a substantial decrease in consumer surplus. Scenario analyses demonstrate that the worst cases of pig production reduction and price increase would trigger 1.4% and 2.07% declines in gross domestic product, respectively. These findings demonstrate an urgent need for rapid ASF containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines.
非洲猪瘟（ASF）是一种致命且极具传染性的出血性疾病，它已蔓延至中国的所有省份，而中国是全球最大的猪肉生产国和消费国。在此，我们运用投入产出模型、局部均衡理论以及一种用于处理缺失数据的替代指标方法，构建了一个系统的估值框架，以评估2018年8月至2019年7月期间中国非洲猪瘟疫情爆发所造成的经济损失。我们发现，经济总损失占2019年中国国内生产总值的0.78%，几乎所有经济部门都因与猪肉产业的关联而受到影响，消费者剩余也大幅减少。情景分析表明，生猪产量降幅最大和价格涨幅最大的最坏情况将分别导致国内生产总值下降1.4%和2.07%。这些研究结果表明，迫切需要迅速采取控制和预防非洲猪瘟的措施，以避免未来疫情爆发和经济衰退。
