Guo Yixin, Chen Youfan, Searchinger Timothy D, Zhou Mi, Pan Da, Yang Junnan, Wu Liang, Cui Zhenling, Zhang Weifeng, Zhang Fusuo, Ma Lin, Sun Yele, Zondlo Mark A, Zhang Lin, Mauzerall Denise L
Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Nat Food. 2020 Oct;1(10):648-658. doi: 10.1038/s43016-020-00162-z. Epub 2020 Oct 14.
China's gains in food production over the past four decades have been associated with substantial agricultural nitrogen losses, which contribute to air and water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and damage to human health. Here, we explore the potential to improve agricultural production practices that simultaneously increase yields while addressing these environmental challenges. We link agronomic research with air quality modelling for an integrated assessment of four improved nitrogen management strategies: improved farm management practices with nitrogen use reductions; machine deep placement of fertilizer; enhanced-efficiency fertilizer use; and improved manure management. We find that simultaneous implementation of the four strategies provides the largest benefits, which include: reductions in PM concentrations and associated premature deaths; increases in grain yields and grain nitrogen use efficiency; reductions in NO leaching and runoff and greenhouse gas emissions. Total benefits of US$30 billion per year exceed the US$18 billion per year in costs. Our findings indicate that policies that improve farmers' agricultural nitrogen management in China will improve both food security and public health while addressing multiple environmental challenges. Similar increases in attention on agricultural policy around the world are likely to provide large benefits in food security, environmental integrity and public health.
在过去四十年里,中国粮食产量的增长与大量农业氮素流失有关,这些流失的氮素会造成空气和水污染、温室气体排放以及对人类健康的损害。在此,我们探讨改进农业生产方式的潜力,这些方式能在提高产量的同时应对这些环境挑战。我们将农学研究与空气质量模型相结合,对四种改进氮素管理策略进行综合评估:减少氮素使用的改进农场管理措施;肥料机械深施;增效肥料的使用;以及改进粪便管理。我们发现,同时实施这四种策略能带来最大的益处,包括:降低细颗粒物浓度及相关的过早死亡人数;提高粮食产量和粮食氮素利用效率;减少氮素淋溶、径流以及温室气体排放。每年300亿美元的总收益超过了每年180亿美元的成本。我们的研究结果表明,改善中国农民农业氮素管理的政策将在保障粮食安全和公众健康的同时应对多重环境挑战。全球对农业政策关注度的类似提高可能会在粮食安全、环境完整性和公众健康方面带来巨大益处。