Finance Department, Faculty of Economics, University of Montenegro, Podgorica, Montenegro
Financial Management Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Mediterranean University, Podgorica, Montenegro.
Tob Control. 2024 Jun 4;33(Suppl 2):s75-s80. doi: 10.1136/tc-2022-057786.
The main goal of this study is to estimate the crowding out impact of tobacco expenditures on the household budget allocation to other mutually exclusive commodity groups in Montenegro.
The analysis uses the Household Budget Survey data from 2005 to 2017 to estimate a system of Engel curves using a three-stage least squares approach. As the tobacco expenditure variable is endogenous to budget shares on other consumption items, instrumental variables were included to obtain consistent estimates.
Overall, the results confirm the existence of the crowding out effect of tobacco spending on various commodities, such as some food items (eg, cereals, fruits and vegetables and dairy products), clothing, housing and utilities, education and recreation while a positive effect of tobacco consumption was estimated on budget shares on bars and restaurants, alcohol, coffee and sugary drinks. These results are consistent throughout the income groups of households. The estimates indicate that an increase in tobacco expenditures leads to reduction in budget shares on essential goods, which is likely to have negative impacts on the household living standard.
Tobacco expenditure crowds out household spending on necessities, especially in case of the poorest households, thus increasing inequality, hampering human capital development and potentially causing long-term adverse effects on the households in Montenegro. Our results are similar to evidence from other low and middle-income countries. This paper contributes to the analysis of the crowding out effect of tobacco consumption, which was conducted for the first time in Montenegro.
本研究的主要目的是估计烟草支出对黑山家庭预算分配给其他相互排斥的商品组的挤出效应。
该分析使用了 2005 年至 2017 年的家庭预算调查数据，采用三阶段最小二乘法系统估计恩格尔曲线。由于烟草支出变量是预算份额对其他消费项目的内生变量，因此包含了工具变量以获得一致的估计。
总体而言，结果证实了烟草支出对各种商品（如某些食品（如谷物、水果和蔬菜以及乳制品）、服装、住房和公用事业、教育和娱乐）存在挤出效应，而烟草消费对酒吧和餐馆、酒精、咖啡和含糖饮料的预算份额存在正向影响。这些结果在家庭的各个收入群体中都是一致的。估计表明，烟草支出的增加导致基本商品预算份额的减少，这可能对家庭生活水平产生负面影响。
烟草支出挤出了家庭在必需品上的支出，尤其是在最贫困的家庭中，从而加剧了不平等，阻碍了人力资本的发展，并可能对黑山的家庭造成长期的不利影响。我们的结果与其他低收入和中等收入国家的证据相似。本文为首次在黑山进行的烟草消费挤出效应分析做出了贡献。
