Department of Civil Engineering, Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University, Erzincan, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jun;30(27):70604-70620. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27417-z. Epub 2023 May 8.
Hotter and drier weather conditions due to climate change negatively affect water resources and agricultural production. For this reason, it is vital to analyze the change in potential evapotranspiration (PET) values, which is one of the most important parameters related to plant growth and agricultural irrigation planning. This study analyses the trends and changes in monthly and annual PET values between 1965 and 2018 at Erzincan, Bayburt and Gümüşhane meteorological stations in Turkey. For this purpose, monotonic trends in PET values were determined by Spearman's rho (SR), Mann-Kendall (MK), Şen slope (SS), and innovative trend analysis (ITA) tests and change points were analyzed with the sequential MK (SQMK) test. The Hargreaves equation was used to calculate the PET values. As a result of the study, according to MK and SR tests, while increasing trends at 95% and 99% significance levels were dominant at Erzincan and Bayburt stations, no statistically significant trends were found at Gümüşhane station except in February. ITA generally detected more than 5% increasing trends in PET data's low, medium, and high values. According to ITA slope analysis, there are significant increase trends in PET values at all periods, trend 1% significance level. According to the SQMK test, it was revealed that the trend started in PET values, especially in 1995, 2005, and 2010. The findings emphasized the importance of taking measures against decreased agricultural production and managing water resources effectively.
由于气候变化导致的炎热和干燥天气条件对水资源和农业生产产生负面影响。因此，分析潜在蒸散（PET）值的变化至关重要，因为它是与植物生长和农业灌溉规划相关的最重要参数之一。本研究分析了土耳其 Erzincan、Bayburt 和 Gümüşhane 气象站 1965 年至 2018 年期间月和年 PET 值的趋势和变化。为此，通过 Spearman 的 rho（SR）、Mann-Kendall（MK）、Şen 斜率（SS）和创新趋势分析（ITA）检验确定了 PET 值的单调趋势，并通过连续 MK（SQMK）检验分析了变化点。Hargreaves 方程用于计算 PET 值。研究结果表明，根据 MK 和 SR 检验，虽然 Erzincan 和 Bayburt 站在 95%和 99%置信水平上呈上升趋势，但 Gümüşhane 站除 2 月外，没有发现具有统计学意义的趋势。ITA 通常在 PET 数据的低、中、高值中检测到超过 5%的上升趋势。根据 ITA 斜率分析，在所有时期，PET 值都存在显著的上升趋势，趋势达到 1%的显著性水平。根据 SQMK 检验，发现 PET 值的趋势始于 1995 年、2005 年和 2010 年，特别是在这些年份。研究结果强调了采取措施应对农业减产和有效管理水资源的重要性。
