Kliengchuay Wissanupong, Mingkhwan Rachaneekorn, Kiangkoo Nuttapohn, Suwanmanee San, Sahanavin Narut, Kongpran Jira, Aung Htoo Wai, Tantrakarnapa Kraichat
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Krung Thep Maha Nakhon, Thailand.
Environment, Health and Social Impact Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Krung Thep Maha Nakhon, Thailand.
Sci Rep. 2024 Apr 2;14(1):7800. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-57980-5.
The change of temperature and weather parameters is a major concern affecting sustainable development and impacting various sectors, such as agriculture, tourism, and industry. Changing weather patterns and their impact on water resources are important climatic factors that society is facing. In Thailand, climatological features such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation play a substantial role in affecting extreme weather events, which cause damage to the economy, agriculture, tourism, and livelihood of people. To investigate recent serious changes in annual trends of temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation in Thailand, this study used the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. The MK test showed that all six regions had an upward trend in temperature and humidity index (humidex, how hot the weather feels to the average person), while relative humidity and precipitation showed both upward and downward trends across different regions. The ITA method further confirmed the upward trend in temperature and humidex and showed that most data points fell above the 1:1 line. However, the upward trend in most variables was not significant at the 5% level. The southern and eastern regions showed a significant upward trend in relative humidity and humidex at a 5% level of significance according to the MK test. The output of this study can help in the understanding of weather variations and predict future situations and can be used for adaptation strategies.
温度和天气参数的变化是影响可持续发展并冲击各个领域（如农业、旅游业和工业）的一个主要问题。不断变化的天气模式及其对水资源的影响是社会所面临的重要气候因素。在泰国，诸如环境温度、相对湿度和降水量等气候特征在影响极端天气事件方面发挥着重要作用，这些极端天气事件会对经济、农业、旅游业以及民众的生计造成损害。为了调查泰国近期温度、相对湿度和降水量年度趋势的严重变化，本研究采用了曼-肯德尔（MK）检验和创新趋势分析（ITA）方法。MK检验表明，所有六个地区的温度和湿度指数（体感温度，即普通人对天气炎热程度的感受）呈上升趋势，而相对湿度和降水量在不同地区呈现出上升和下降趋势。ITA方法进一步证实了温度和体感温度的上升趋势，并表明大多数数据点落在1:1线之上。然而，大多数变量的上升趋势在5%的水平上并不显著。根据MK检验，南部和东部地区的相对湿度和体感温度在5%的显著水平上呈现出显著的上升趋势。本研究的结果有助于理解天气变化并预测未来情况，可用于制定适应策略。
