Whiteford Harvey, Bagheri Nasser, Diminic Sandra, Enticott Joanne, Gao Caroline X, Hamilton Matthew, Hickie Ian B, Khanh-Dao Le Long, Lee Yong Yi, Long Katrina M, McGorry Patrick, Meadows Graham, Mihalopoulos Cathrine, Occhipinti Jo-An, Rock Daniel, Rosenberg Sebastian, Salvador-Carulla Luis, Skinner Adam
Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, QLD, Australia.
School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, QLD, Australia.
Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 2023 Nov;57(11):1417-1427. doi: 10.1177/00048674231172113. Epub 2023 May 14.
Australia's Fifth National Mental Health Plan required governments to report, not only on the progress of changes to mental health service delivery, but to also plan for services that should be provided. Future population demand for treatment and care is challenging to predict and one solution involves modelling the uncertain demands on the system. Modelling can help decision-makers understand likely future changes in mental health service demand and more intelligently choose appropriate responses. It can also support greater scrutiny, accountability and transparency of these processes. Australia has an emerging national capacity for systems modelling in mental health which can enhance the next phase of mental health reform. This paper introduces concepts useful for understanding mental health modelling and identifies where modelling approaches can support health service planners to make evidence-informed decisions regarding planning and investment for the Australian population.
澳大利亚的第五个国家心理健康计划要求政府不仅要报告心理健康服务提供方面的变革进展情况，还要规划应提供的服务。未来人口对治疗和护理的需求难以预测，一种解决方案是对系统面临的不确定需求进行建模。建模有助于决策者了解心理健康服务需求未来可能发生的变化，并更明智地选择适当的应对措施。它还能支持对这些过程进行更严格的审查、问责和提高透明度。澳大利亚在心理健康系统建模方面正逐渐形成国家能力，这可以推动心理健康改革的下一阶段发展。本文介绍了有助于理解心理健康建模的概念，并确定了建模方法在哪些方面可以支持卫生服务规划者就澳大利亚人口的规划和投资做出基于证据的决策。
