Galam Serge
CEVIPOF-Centre for Political Research, Sciences Po and CNRS, 1 Place Saint Thomas d'Aquin, 75007 Paris, France.
Entropy (Basel). 2023 Apr 6;25(4):622. doi: 10.3390/e25040622.
Political polarization is perceived as a threat to democracies. Using the Galam model of opinion dynamics deployed in a five-dimensional parameter space, I show that polarization is the byproduct of an essential hallmark of a vibrant democratic society, namely open and informal discussions among agents. Indeed, within a homogeneous social community with floaters, the dynamics lead gradually toward unanimity (zero entropy). Polarization can eventually appear as the juxtaposition of non-mixing social groups sharing different prejudices about the issue at stake. On the other hand, the inclusion of contrarian agents produces a polarization within a community that mixes when their proportion is beyond a critical value xc=16≈0.167 for discussing groups of size three and four. Similarly, the presence of stubborn agents also produces a polarization of a community that mixes when the proportion of stubborn agents is greater than some critical value. For equal proportions of stubborn agents along each opinion, ac=29≈0.22 for group size four against ac=14=0.25 for group size three. However, the evaluation of the proportion of individual opinion shifts at the attractor 12 and indicates that the polarization produced by contrarians is fluid with a good deal of agents who keep shifting between the two opposed blocks (high entropy). That favors a coexistence of opposite opinions in a divided community. In contrast, the polarization created by stubborn agents is found to be frozen with very few individuals shifting opinion between the two opinions (low entropy). That yields a basis for the emergence of hate between the frozen opposed blocks.
政治极化被视为对民主国家的一种威胁。通过在五维参数空间中运用意见动态的加拉姆模型,我表明极化是一个充满活力的民主社会的一个基本特征的副产品,即个体之间开放和非正式的讨论。事实上,在一个有游离者的同质社会群体中,动态过程会逐渐趋向一致(零熵)。极化最终可能表现为对所讨论问题持有不同偏见的非混合社会群体的并置。另一方面,当反对者的比例超过一个临界值(x_c=\frac{1}{6}\approx0.167)(对于规模为三人和四人的讨论群体)时,反对者的加入会在一个混合的群体中产生极化。同样,固执者的存在也会在固执者比例大于某个临界值时,使一个混合的群体产生极化。对于沿每个意见方向固执者比例相等的情况,对于规模为四人的群体,临界值(a_c=\frac{2}{9}\approx0.22),而对于规模为三人的群体,临界值(a_c=\frac{1}{4}=0.25)。然而,对吸引子(\frac{1}{2})处个体意见转变比例的评估表明,反对者产生的极化是流动的,有大量个体在两个对立阵营之间不断转变(高熵)。这有利于在一个分裂的群体中对立意见的共存。相比之下,发现固执者产生的极化是固定的,很少有个体在两种意见之间转变意见(低熵)。这为在固定的对立阵营之间产生仇恨奠定了基础。