López-Ramírez Sandro, Chamorro Darío, Real Raimundo, Muñoz Antonio-Román
Biogeography, Diversity, and Conservation Research Team, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Malaga, Malaga, Spain.
Front Zool. 2023 May 17;20(1):18. doi: 10.1186/s12983-023-00496-x.
The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables.
The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa.
We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.
作为对气候变暖的响应，当前物种分布范围的变化是生物地理学中一项有趣的研究方向和近期面临的挑战。本研究旨在确定南欧的气候条件是否适合容纳一种典型的非洲物种——家鹀，近年来该物种虽仍数量稀少，但有定期记录。为此，利用家鹀当前的繁殖分布区域和一组环境变量，对其在原生范围内当前和未来气候情景下的分布进行了建模。
结果表明，在当前气候条件下，伊比利亚半岛的南半部对容纳这种非洲物种具有较高的适宜度值。此外，未来预测表明该地区的适宜度将会增加。我们在伊比利亚半岛南部检测到的高度适宜区域已经经常有该物种的个体出现。这些观察结果很可能是从摩洛哥北部最近殖民的繁殖区域扩散而来的迷鸟，这可能表明向北的殖民化进程在持续进行，就像过去几十年在北非发生的那样。
我们无法预测家鹀何时会在欧洲大陆定居，因为殖民化进程通常很缓慢，但根据我们的结果，我们预测它将在不久的将来定居。我们还确定了欧洲境内对该物种具有适宜条件的区域。如果气候持续变暖，这些区域是该物种及其他非洲鸟类殖民化的潜在焦点。
