Biogeography, Diversity, and Conservation Research Team, Department of Animal Biology, Science Faculty, Universidad de Málaga, 29071, Malaga, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2020 Oct 1;10(1):16272. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-73509-y.
The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.
最近，物种分布范围对温暖气候的响应已经构成了一个主要的、普遍的生物地理变化。分布变化的主要驱动因素是物种分布范围与其气候适宜性之间的不平衡。大多数物种分布模型方法假设分布与环境之间的平衡，这限制了它们在分析这种变化中的应用。我们使用模糊集理论评估了历史上分布在非洲的一种物种——阿特拉斯长腿兀鹰对气候变化的响应。通过这种方法，我们能够量化出该兀鹰的分布与其当前气候之间存在 4 公里的纬度不平衡，这导致该物种以每年约 1.3 公里的速度向北移动，即该物种需要 3 年的时间才能占据新的气候适宜地区。预计到 2060-2080 年，这一速度将减缓至 0.5 公里/年。
