Bhadra Madhusmita, Gul M Junaid, Choi Gyu Sang
Department of Information and Communication Engineering, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, Republic of Korea.
Humanit Soc Sci Commun. 2023;10(1):233. doi: 10.1057/s41599-023-01659-1. Epub 2023 May 12.
The Food, Beverage & Tobacco (F&B) industry is an essential sector in the competitive economy. Procurement of production factors mainly depends on sales forecasting and the supply chain of raw materials. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has jeopardized the global supply chain. As the conflict worsened, the world faced a food crisis, which was already a significant challenge due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Understanding how conflict-related disruptions in global food markets might affect the stock return of the F&B industry of South Korea, this study forecasts the stock returns on the KOSDAQ F&B sector. This paper highlights that the conflict resulted in immediate and far-reaching consequences on the global food supply chain and future crop harvesting in South Korea. As numerous algorithms have been widely used in predicting stock market returns, we use Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the prediction. Using daily returns from the KOSDAQ F&B industry from January 1999 to October 2022, the study proposes an ARIMA (2,2,3) model to forecast future movements of the stock returns. With an RMSE of 0.012, the prediction performance holds good using the ARIMA model. The results show a negative trend observed in the F&B sector returns for a few months, implying that sector stock returns decline as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine becomes more pronounced. This study also suggests that South Korea has massive scope to stabilize the demand for healthy, safe food, give more attention to domestic agribusiness, and make itself a self-sufficient agri-economy.
食品、饮料和烟草（F&B）行业是竞争激烈的经济中的一个重要部门。生产要素的采购主要取决于销售预测和原材料供应链。然而，俄乌冲突危及了全球供应链。随着冲突的恶化，世界面临着粮食危机，而由于新冠疫情，这已经是一个重大挑战。为了了解全球食品市场中与冲突相关的干扰如何影响韩国F&B行业的股票回报，本研究对科斯达克F&B板块的股票回报进行了预测。本文强调，冲突对全球食品供应链和韩国未来的作物收成产生了直接和深远的影响。由于众多算法已被广泛用于预测股票市场回报，我们使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型进行预测。利用1999年1月至2022年10月科斯达克F&B行业的每日回报，该研究提出了一个ARIMA（2,2,3）模型来预测股票回报的未来走势。该ARIMA模型的均方根误差为0.012，预测性能良好。结果显示，F&B板块的回报在几个月内呈现出负趋势，这意味着随着俄乌冲突加剧，该板块的股票回报会下降。本研究还表明，韩国有很大的空间来稳定对健康、安全食品的需求，更加关注国内农业综合企业，并使自己成为一个自给自足的农业经济体。
