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投资者对新冠疫情与非洲股票回报的关注。

Investor attention on COVID-19 and African stock returns.

作者信息

Iyke Bernard Njindan, Ho Sin-Yu

机构信息

Centre for Financial Econometrics, Deakin Business School, Deakin University, Australia.

Department of Economics, College of Economic and Management Sciences University of South Africa, South Africa.

出版信息

MethodsX. 2020 Dec 29;8:101195. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2020.101195. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

We examine the financial consequences of rising global investor attention or risk attitude related to the COVID-19 pandemic for African stock markets. Using daily investor attention indices, which are based on global COVD-19-related google search queries, and stock return indices for 14 African stock markets, we show that investor attention is an important determinant of stock returns. Our estimates suggest that an increase in investor attention consistently reduces stock returns in three stock markets, namely Botswana, Nigeria, and Zambia. In contrast, an increase in investor attention may enhance stock returns in Ghana and Tanzania. Our estimates imply that, in uncertain times like the current pandemic, stock markets like those of Ghana and Tanzania may offer potential diversification benefits to investors. We demonstrate that our estimates are broadly robust using a composite measure of investor attention.•We built a direct and unambiguous measure of investor attention or risk attitude related to the COVID-19 pandemic.•In an exponential generalised autoregressive heteroskedasticity of order one (i.e. EGARCH(1,1)) framework, we regressed stock returns on their first lags, investor attention, exchange rate returns, and commodity returns, and controlled for investor attention in the variance equation.

摘要

我们研究了全球投资者对与新冠疫情相关的非洲股票市场关注度上升或风险态度变化所带来的财务影响。利用基于全球与新冠疫情相关的谷歌搜索查询的每日投资者关注度指数,以及14个非洲股票市场的股票回报指数,我们发现投资者关注度是股票回报的一个重要决定因素。我们的估计表明,投资者关注度的增加持续降低了博茨瓦纳、尼日利亚和赞比亚这三个股票市场的股票回报。相比之下,投资者关注度的增加可能会提高加纳和坦桑尼亚的股票回报。我们的估计意味着,在当前疫情这样的不确定时期,像加纳和坦桑尼亚这样的股票市场可能为投资者提供潜在的多元化收益。我们证明,使用投资者关注度的综合指标,我们的估计大致是稳健的。

•我们构建了一个与新冠疫情相关的投资者关注度或风险态度的直接且明确的指标。

•在一阶指数广义自回归条件异方差(即EGARCH(1,1))框架下,我们将股票回报对其一阶滞后项、投资者关注度、汇率回报和大宗商品回报进行回归,并在方差方程中控制投资者关注度。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/47f0/8374205/5c2f73472e76/fx1.jpg

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