School of Economics and Management/Institute for Macroeconomy High-Quality Development of Xinjiang, Xinjiang University, Wulumuqi, Ürümqi, 830046, China.
School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Wulumuqi, Ürümqi, 830046, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jun;30(29):74207-74222. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27706-7. Epub 2023 May 19.
Carbon emission trading policy (CETP) is an important tool for energy savings and emission reduction. However, the effect of CETP on carbon emission reduction in power industry is still unknown. This paper uses the difference-in-differences (DID) model and the intermediary effect model to test the impact and mechanism of CETP on power industry carbon emissions. In addition, a spatial difference-in-differences (SDID) model is established to analyze the spatial spillover effect. The results show that CETP has a significant inhibitory effect on power industry carbon emissions and the results are still valid after endogenous and robust tests. The improvement of technology level and power conversion efficiency plays an intermediary role for CETP to reduce power industry carbon emissions. The optimization of power generation structure is likely to become another important way for CETP to play its role in the future. The spatial spillover effect test shows that CETP not only has a significant inhibitory effect on power industry carbon emissions in the pilot areas but also has a negative spatial spillover effect on power industry carbon emissions in the surrounding non-pilot areas. The heterogeneity tests show that CETP has the most significant reduction effect in the central region of China and the strongest spatial spillover inhibiting effect in the eastern region. The purpose of this study is to provide decision-making references for government to achieve China's dual-carbon goal.
碳排放交易政策（CETP）是节能减排的重要工具。然而，CETP 对电力行业碳减排的影响尚不清楚。本文采用双重差分（DID）模型和中介效应模型，检验 CETP 对电力行业碳排放的影响及作用机制。此外，还构建了空间双重差分（SDID）模型，以分析空间溢出效应。结果表明，CETP 对电力行业碳排放具有显著的抑制作用，且经过内生性和稳健性检验后结果依然有效。技术水平提升和电能转换效率提高在 CETP 降低电力行业碳排放的过程中发挥中介作用。优化发电结构可能成为 CETP 未来发挥作用的另一个重要途径。空间溢出效应检验表明，CETP 不仅对试点地区电力行业碳排放具有显著的抑制作用，而且对周边非试点地区电力行业碳排放也具有负向的空间溢出效应。异质性检验表明，CETP 对中国中部地区的减排效果最为显著，对东部地区的空间溢出抑制效应最强。本文旨在为政府实现中国“双碳”目标提供决策参考。
