School of Management, Shenzhen Polytechnic, Shenzhen 518055, China.
School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jan 22;19(3):1209. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19031209.
The carbon emission trading system (CETS) is an important market-oriented policy tool for the Chinese government to solve the problem of high emissions and achieve the growth of green total factor productivity (GTFP). This study makes up for the neglect of the spatial effect of CETS policy in previous studies and adopts the spatial difference-in-differences (DID) Durbin model (SDID-SDM) method of two-way fixed effects to scientifically identify the direct and spatial effects influencing the mechanisms and heterogeneity of CETS on urban GTFP based on the panel data of 281 cities in China from 2004 to 2017. It found that China's CETS significantly improved the GTFP of pilot cities but produced a negative spatial siphon effect that restricted the growth of GTFP in surrounding cities. Benchmark results are robust under the placebo test, the propensity score matching SDID (PSM-SDID) test, and the difference-in difference-in-differences (DDD) test. The mechanism analysis shows that the CETS effect is mainly realized by improving energy efficiency, promoting low-carbon innovation, adjusting the industrial structure, and enhancing financial agglomeration. In addition, we find that policy effects are better in cities with high marketization, strong monitoring reporting and verification (MRV) capabilities, high coal endowment, and high financial endowment. Overall, China's CETS policy achieves the goal of enhancing GTFP but needs to pay attention to the spatial siphon effect. In addition, our estimation strategy can serve as a scientific reference for similar studies in other developing countries.
碳排放交易体系（CETS）是中国政府解决高排放问题、实现绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）增长的重要市场导向政策工具。本研究弥补了先前研究中对 CETS 政策空间效应忽视的不足，采用双向固定效应的空间双重差分（DID）杜宾模型（SDID-SDM）方法，基于 2004 年至 2017 年中国 281 个城市的面板数据，科学识别 CETS 对城市 GTFP 的影响机制和异质性的直接和空间效应。结果表明，中国的 CETS 显著提高了试点城市的 GTFP，但产生了负的空间虹吸效应，限制了周边城市 GTFP 的增长。安慰剂检验、倾向评分匹配双重差分（PSM-SDID）检验和双重差分差异检验（DDD）下的基准结果都是稳健的。机制分析表明，CETS 效应主要通过提高能源效率、促进低碳创新、调整产业结构和增强金融集聚来实现。此外，我们发现，在市场化程度较高、监测报告和核查（MRV）能力较强、煤炭资源丰富和金融资源丰富的城市，政策效果更好。总体而言，中国的 CETS 政策实现了提高 GTFP 的目标，但需要注意空间虹吸效应。此外，我们的估计策略可以为其他发展中国家类似研究提供科学参考。
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