College of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, China E-mail:
Shandong Vocational College of Technology, Weifang 261053, China.
Water Sci Technol. 2023 Feb;87(4):892-909. doi: 10.2166/wst.2023.016.
Flash flood disaster is one of the important natural disasters, bringing harm to human life and causing serious economic losses, so it is urgent to improve the accuracy of flash flood warning. To determine the critical rainfall and early warning indicators of disaster prevention objects, the Shuyuan Watershed of Qufu City Shandong Province was selected as the research object, the key disaster prevention objects were screened and finally, Hengmiao Village and Gaolou Village were selected as typical disaster prevention objects. Empirical analysis method, Storm analysis method, and model analysis method were used to calculate the critical rainfall at different times under different soil water content conditions, compare and analyze the rationality and existing problems of these three methods, and comprehensively determine the indicators of typical disaster prevention objects under different circumstances. The results show that the value of the index calculated by the storm analysis method is small and calculated by the model analysis method is large. This paper can improve the accuracy of flash flood warning, select the critical rainfall calculation method according to local conditions, accurately calculate the parameter values, and deal with the problem of effective early warning in the region as a whole.
山洪灾害是重要的自然灾害之一，给人类生命带来危害的同时，也造成了严重的经济损失，因此提高山洪预警的准确性迫在眉睫。为确定防灾对象的临界降雨和预警指标，选取山东省曲阜市书院流域作为研究对象，对关键防灾对象进行筛选，最终选取横庙村和高楼村作为典型防灾对象。采用经验分析法、暴雨分析方法和模型分析方法，计算不同土壤含水量条件下不同时间的临界降雨量，对比分析这三种方法的合理性和存在的问题，综合确定不同情况下典型防灾对象的指标。结果表明，暴雨分析方法计算的指数值较小，模型分析方法计算的指数值较大。本文可以提高山洪预警的准确性，根据当地条件选择临界降雨计算方法，准确计算参数值，整体解决区域内有效预警的问题。
