Jung Jae-Min, Byeon Dae-Hyeon, Lee Dong-Hyeon, Nam Youngwoo, Jung Sunghoon, Lee Wang-Hee
Department of Biosystems Machinery Engineering Chungnam National University Daejeon Korea.
Department of Environment and Forest Resources Chungnam National University Daejon Korea.
Ecol Evol. 2023 May 20;13(5):e10104. doi: 10.1002/ece3.10104. eCollection 2023 May.
The western conifer seed bug (WCSB) (Heidemann) (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a pest insect that causes significant losses of coniferous trees worldwide. In this study, we sought to project the potential distribution of the WCSB based on dual CLIMEX modeling and random forest (RF) analysis to obtain basic data for WCSB monitoring strategies. The CLIMEX model, a semimechanistic niche model that responds to climate-based environmental parameters, is a species distribution model that focuses on regional climatic suitability. Given that this model can be used to select areas that are likely to reflect the climatically favorable spread of species, which we initially used CLIMEX to evaluate the potential distribution of the WCSB. The RF algorithm was used to predict the potential occurrence of WCSB and to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for WCSB occurrence. Using the RF model, land cover was found to be the most important variable for classifying the presence/pseudo-absence of the WCSB, with an accuracy of 77.1%. Climatic suitability for the WCSB was predicted to be 2.4-fold higher in Southern Europe than in Western Europe, and the WCSB was predicted to occur primarily near coniferous forests. Given that CLIMEX and RF analyses yielded different prediction results, using the findings of both models may compensate for the shortcomings of these models when used independently. Consequently, to ensure greater prediction reliability, we believe that it would be beneficial to base predictions on the combined potential distribution data obtained using both modeling approaches.
西方松籽虫（WCSB）（海德曼）（半翅目：缘蝽科）是一种害虫，在全球范围内给针叶树造成重大损失。在本研究中，我们试图基于双CLIMEX建模和随机森林（RF）分析来预测WCSB的潜在分布，以获取WCSB监测策略的基础数据。CLIMEX模型是一种半机械生态位模型，对基于气候的环境参数做出响应，是一种专注于区域气候适宜性的物种分布模型。鉴于该模型可用于选择可能反映物种气候适宜性扩散的区域，我们最初使用CLIMEX来评估WCSB的潜在分布。RF算法用于预测WCSB的潜在出现情况，并评估环境变量对WCSB出现的相对重要性。使用RF模型发现，土地覆盖是分类WCSB存在/伪不存在的最重要变量，准确率为77.1%。预计南欧对WCSB的气候适宜性比西欧高2.4倍，且预计WCSB主要出现在针叶林附近。鉴于CLIMEX和RF分析产生了不同的预测结果，同时使用这两种模型的结果可能会弥补这些模型单独使用时的缺点。因此，为确保更高的预测可靠性，我们认为基于使用两种建模方法获得的综合潜在分布数据进行预测将是有益之举。
