意外长寿、代际政策与生育率。

Unexpected longevity, intergenerational policies, and fertility.

作者信息

Hwang Jisoo, Kim Seok Ki

机构信息

College of Liberal Studies, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826 South Korea.

Banking Industry Division, Korea Institute of Finance, KFB bldg., 19 Myeong-dong 11 gil, Jung-gu, Seoul, 04538 South Korea.

出版信息

J Popul Econ. 2023;36(3):1607-1640. doi: 10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3. Epub 2023 Mar 21.

DOI:10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3

PMID:37223458

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10027599/

Abstract

UNLABELLED

This paper studies the dynamic effects of longevity on intergenerational policies and fertility, distinguishing between effects of and longevity gains. Old agents become poorer from unexpected longevity gains than from expected gains, as they cannot prepare (save) for the former in advance. In an overlapping-generations model with means-tested pay-as-you-go social security, we show that young agents reduce their fertility when longevity increases because they need to save more for their old age ("life-cycle effect"), and in the unexpected case, they also need to pay taxes to support the impoverished elderly ("policy effect"). Using cross-country panel data on mortality rates and social expenditure, we find that an unexpected increase in life expectancy at age 65 lowers total fertility rate growth and government family-related spending growth while raising government old-age spending growth.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3.

摘要

未标注

本文研究了长寿对代际政策和生育率的动态影响，区分了意外长寿收益和预期长寿收益的影响。老年个体因意外长寿收益而比因预期收益变得更贫困，因为他们无法提前为前者做准备（储蓄）。在一个具有收入调查型现收现付社会保障的代际模型中，我们表明，当长寿增加时，年轻个体降低他们的生育率，因为他们需要为老年更多地储蓄（“生命周期效应”），并且在意外情况下，他们还需要纳税以支持贫困的老年人（“政策效应”）。利用关于死亡率和社会支出的跨国面板数据，我们发现65岁时预期寿命的意外增加降低了总生育率增长和政府家庭相关支出增长，同时提高了政府老年支出增长。