Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.
Am Econ Rev. 2005 Jun;95(3):580-601. doi: 10.1257/0002828054201486.
This paper develops a model where reductions in mortality are the main force behind economic development. The model generates a pattern of changes similar to the demographic transition, where gains in life expectancy at birth are followed by reductions in fertility and increases in the rate of human capital accumulation. The onset of the transition is characterized by a critical level of life expectancy at birth, which marks the movement of the economy from a Malthusian equilibrium to an equilibrium with investments in human capital and the possibility of long-run growth.
本文构建了一个模型,该模型认为死亡率的降低是经济发展的主要推动力。该模型产生的变化模式与人口转变相似,即出生时预期寿命的提高伴随着生育率的降低和人力资本积累率的提高。转变的开始以出生时预期寿命的临界水平为特征,这标志着经济从马尔萨斯均衡向人力资本投资和长期增长的均衡的转变。
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