Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lancet. 2015 Feb 7;385(9967):540-8. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60569-9. Epub 2014 Nov 6.
In high-income countries, life expectancy at age 60 years has increased in recent decades. Falling tobacco use (for men only) and cardiovascular disease mortality (for both men and women) are the main factors contributing to this rise. In high-income countries, avoidable male mortality has fallen since 1980 because of decreases in avoidable cardiovascular deaths. For men in Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and central Asia, and for women in all regions, avoidable mortality has changed little or increased since 1980. As yet, no evidence exists that the rate of improvement in older age mortality (60 years and older) is slowing down or that older age deaths are being compressed into a narrow age band as they approach a hypothesised upper limit to longevity.
在高收入国家,最近几十年来,60 岁人群的预期寿命有所增加。吸烟率下降(仅男性)和心血管疾病死亡率下降(男女均如此)是导致这一增长的主要因素。自 1980 年以来,由于可避免的心血管疾病死亡人数减少,高收入国家的男性可避免死亡率有所下降。在拉丁美洲、加勒比、欧洲和中亚的男性以及所有地区的女性中,自 1980 年以来,可避免死亡率变化不大或有所增加。目前尚无证据表明,老年人死亡率(60 岁及以上)的改善速度正在放缓,或者随着接近长寿假设的上限,老年人的死亡正在被压缩到一个狭窄的年龄区间。