Marketing Department, University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
School of Business, University of California Riverside.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2023 Sep;152(9):2651-2665. doi: 10.1037/xge0001380. Epub 2023 May 25.
A large literature implicates time preference (i.e., how much an outcome retains value as it is delayed) as a predictor of a wide range of behaviors, because most behaviors involve sooner and delayed consequences. We aimed to provide the most comprehensive examination to date of how well laboratory-derived estimates of time preference relate to self-reports of 36 behaviors, ranging from retirement savings to flossing, in a test-rest design using a large sample ( = 1,308) and two waves of data collection separated by 4.5 months. Time preference is significantly-albeit modestly-associated with about half of the behaviors; this is true even when controlling for 15 other demographic variables and psychologically relevant scales. There is substantial variance in the strengths of associations that is not easily explained. Time preference's predictive validity falls in the middle of these 16 possible predictors. Finally, we ask time preference researchers ( = 55) to predict the variation in the relationship between time preference and behaviors, and although they are reasonably well-calibrated, these experts tend to overestimate the predictive power of time preference estimates. We discuss implications of invoking time preference as a predictor and/or determinant of behaviors with delayed consequences in light of our findings. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
大量文献表明，时间偏好（即，随着时间的推移，结果保留的价值）是广泛行为的预测指标，因为大多数行为都涉及即时和延迟的后果。我们旨在通过使用大型样本（n=1308）和两个相隔 4.5 个月的数据集收集，在测试-再测试设计中，对实验室得出的时间偏好估计与 36 种行为（从退休储蓄到使用牙线）的自我报告之间的关系进行迄今为止最全面的检查。时间偏好与大约一半的行为显著相关——即使在控制了 15 个其他人口统计学变量和心理相关量表后也是如此。这种关联的强度存在很大差异，且难以解释。时间偏好的预测效度在这 16 个可能的预测因素中处于中等水平。最后，我们要求 55 名时间偏好研究人员预测时间偏好与具有延迟后果的行为之间关系的变化，尽管他们的校准能力相当合理，但这些专家往往高估了时间偏好估计的预测能力。我们根据研究结果，讨论了将时间偏好作为具有延迟后果的行为的预测指标和/或决定因素的意义。
