State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, 519087, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Oct 1;343:118209. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118209. Epub 2023 May 23.
Not only insufficient water quantity but also inadequate water quality can pose constraints on agricultural production and result in potential economic losses. Such economic losses in agriculture may adversely impact downstream producers through reduced input supplies. In this study, we developed an index assessing potential economic losses in agriculture under both quantity- and quality-induced water scarcity, termed integrated Agricultural Water Scarcity Risk (AWSR). Combining integrated AWSR with a multi-regional input-output model, we estimated the spillovers of integrated AWSR along supply chains. Our results showed that the intersectoral transmission of virtual integrated AWSR (sectoral spillovers in terms of integrated AWSR) were 5 times the virtual quantity-based AWSR. Pollution significantly intensifies the indirect supply-chain repercussions of agricultural water scarcity. Moreover, we identified some primary virtual integrated AWSR exporters (e.g., Jiangsu-vegetables and Shandong-swine, of which the integrated AWSR had considerable spillover effects on downstream sectors) and importers (e.g., Henan-chemical industry and Henan-textiles, which were vulnerable to upstream integrated AWSR), that could not be detected in quantity-based AWSR results. This study underscores the importance of water quality in the assessments of AWSR. Strategies to mitigate the spillovers of AWSR might be inefficient without the consideration of water quality.
不仅水量不足，水质不佳也会限制农业生产并导致潜在的经济损失。这种农业经济损失可能会通过减少投入供应，对下游生产者产生不利影响。在本研究中，我们开发了一个评估数量和质量引起的水资源短缺对农业造成的潜在经济损失的指标，称为综合农业水资源短缺风险（AWSR）。我们将综合 AWSR 与多区域投入产出模型相结合，估计了供应链中综合 AWSR 的溢出效应。结果表明，虚拟综合 AWSR 的部门间传递（就综合 AWSR 而言的部门间溢出）是虚拟数量型 AWSR 的 5 倍。污染显著加剧了农业水资源短缺对间接供应链的影响。此外，我们确定了一些主要的虚拟综合 AWSR 出口国（例如江苏-蔬菜和山东-猪，其综合 AWSR 对下游部门有相当大的溢出效应）和进口国（例如河南-化工和河南-纺织，它们容易受到上游综合 AWSR 的影响），这些在数量型 AWSR 结果中无法检测到。本研究强调了水质在 AWSR 评估中的重要性。如果不考虑水质，减轻 AWSR 溢出效应的策略可能效率低下。
