School of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, 401331, China.
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Environment Remote Sensing in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, 401331, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2023 May 30;195(6):760. doi: 10.1007/s10661-023-11398-0.
Scientific descriptions and simulations of the ecological risks in mountainous areas can promote the sustainable use of land resources in these areas and improve the reliability of decision-making for ecological risk management. Taking Chongqing, China, as an example, we constructed a landscape ecological risk (LER) evaluation model based on land use data from 1995 to 2020 and analysed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the LER pattern. Moreover, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and multi-objective programming (MOP) method and input multiple scenarios (inertial development, ID; economic priority development, ED; ecological priority development, PD; and sustainable development, SD) to simulate the ecological risk pattern in 2030. The model coupling the "top-down" and "bottom-up" processes obtained optimal land use patterns in different contexts, and it was used to perform a spatially explicit examination of LER evolutionary trends in different contexts. The results showed that LER evolution in Chongqing has had obvious stage characteristics. The high-risk area decreased significantly under various constraints, including topographic, economic, and other constraints, and the distribution showed a trend of high in the west and low in the east. The LER spatial clustering characteristics were highly coupled with the risk level pattern. The ED scenario presented the most severe risk, the PD scenario presented a moderate risk, and the SD scenario balanced the land demand for economic and ecological development and had a better land use structure and LER compared with the other scenarios. The coupled model proposed in this study helps to obtain the optimal land use structure and mitigate ecological risks, thus providing a scientific basis for future urban development.
山区生态风险的科学描述和模拟可以促进这些地区土地资源的可持续利用，并提高生态风险管理决策的可靠性。以中国重庆为例，我们构建了一个基于 1995 年至 2020 年土地利用数据的景观生态风险（LER）评价模型，分析了 LER 格局的时空演变特征。此外，我们耦合了斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型和多目标规划（MOP）方法，并输入多个情景（惯性发展、ID；经济优先发展、ED；生态优先发展、PD；可持续发展、SD），以模拟 2030 年的生态风险格局。该模型结合了“自上而下”和“自下而上”的过程，获得了不同情境下的最优土地利用模式，并用于对不同情境下的 LER 演化趋势进行空间显式检验。结果表明，重庆的 LER 演化具有明显的阶段性特征。在地形、经济等多种约束条件下，高风险区显著减少，分布呈现西高东低的趋势。LER 空间聚类特征与风险水平模式高度耦合。ED 情景下风险最为严重，PD 情景下风险中等，SD 情景下平衡了经济和生态发展对土地的需求，与其他情景相比，具有更好的土地利用结构和 LER。本研究提出的耦合模型有助于获得最优的土地利用结构和减轻生态风险，从而为未来城市发展提供科学依据。
