School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Hunan Planning Institute of Land and Resources, Changsha, 410007, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(18):52804-52817. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-26128-9. Epub 2023 Feb 27.
A useful spatial pattern of cultivated land utilization in mountainous areas is a basic prerequisite for promoting efficient utilization of cultivated land and has a practical use for ensuring regional food security and rural revitalization. In this paper, we use Enshi and Lichuan cities as case studies and the PLUS model to analyze the spatial differentiation characteristics of cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. In addition, we simulated the spatial pattern of cultivated land in 2030 concerning the ecological priority scenario (scenario I) and the ecological and economic coordination scenario (scenario II). The results show that (1) the degree of cultivated land fragmentation from 2000 to 2020 is characterized as "high in the east and low in the west," and the spatial aggregation of cultivated land decreases slightly over time and that there is a risk of increasing fragmentation of cultivated land in the future. (2) The complexity of cultivated land shape shows a fluctuating decrease between 2000 and 2030, and an overall trend of landscape homogenization. (3) The spatial distribution of cultivated land is concentrated in the peak cluster depressions and river valleys. The imbalance in the distribution of cultivated land has increased in the past two decades which should be curbed in the future. (4) In 2030, concerning the ecological priority development scenario, cultivated land use tends to evolve in the direction of balanced distribution and a relatively complex shape. (5) Concerning the coordinated ecological and economic development scenario, the spatial aggregation of cultivated land is higher and the patches of cultivated land are more regular, but the distribution imbalance is more serious. The results can provide scientific references for sustainable and effective use of cultivated land in mountainous areas.
山区耕地利用的合理空间格局是促进耕地高效利用的基本前提，对于保障区域粮食安全和乡村振兴具有现实意义。本研究以恩施市和利川市为例，采用 PLUS 模型分析了 2000-2020 年耕地利用的空间分异特征，并模拟了 2030 年生态优先情景（情景 I）和生态经济协调情景（情景 II）下耕地空间格局。结果表明：（1）2000-2020 年耕地破碎度呈现“东高西低”的特征，耕地空间集聚度呈略微下降趋势，未来耕地破碎化风险增加；（2）耕地形状复杂度呈波动下降趋势，景观趋于均一化；（3）耕地空间分布集中在峰丛洼地和河谷，耕地分布不均衡性在过去 20 年有所加剧，未来需加以遏制；（4）2030 年，生态优先情景下耕地利用趋于均衡化和复杂化发展；（5）生态经济协调情景下耕地空间集聚度更高，斑块形状更规则，但分布不均衡性更加严重。研究结果可为山区耕地可持续和有效利用提供科学参考。
