Spatial differentiation and scenario simulation of cultivated land in mountainous areas of Western Hubei, China: a PLUS model.

A useful spatial pattern of cultivated land utilization in mountainous areas is a basic prerequisite for promoting efficient utilization of cultivated land and has a practical use for ensuring regional food security and rural revitalization. In this paper, we use Enshi and Lichuan cities as case studies and the PLUS model to analyze the spatial differentiation characteristics of cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. In addition, we simulated the spatial pattern of cultivated land in 2030 concerning the ecological priority scenario (scenario I) and the ecological and economic coordination scenario (scenario II). The results show that (1) the degree of cultivated land fragmentation from 2000 to 2020 is characterized as "high in the east and low in the west," and the spatial aggregation of cultivated land decreases slightly over time and that there is a risk of increasing fragmentation of cultivated land in the future. (2) The complexity of cultivated land shape shows a fluctuating decrease between 2000 and 2030, and an overall trend of landscape homogenization. (3) The spatial distribution of cultivated land is concentrated in the peak cluster depressions and river valleys. The imbalance in the distribution of cultivated land has increased in the past two decades which should be curbed in the future. (4) In 2030, concerning the ecological priority development scenario, cultivated land use tends to evolve in the direction of balanced distribution and a relatively complex shape. (5) Concerning the coordinated ecological and economic development scenario, the spatial aggregation of cultivated land is higher and the patches of cultivated land are more regular, but the distribution imbalance is more serious. The results can provide scientific references for sustainable and effective use of cultivated land in mountainous areas.