Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation Laboratory Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation Laboratory Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Lancet Planet Health. 2023 Jun;7(6):e527-e536. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00056-6.
Climate-sensitive infectious disease modelling is crucial for public health planning and is underpinned by a complex network of software tools. We identified only 37 tools that incorporated both climate inputs and epidemiological information to produce an output of disease risk in one package, were transparently described and validated, were named (for future searching and versioning), and were accessible (ie, the code was published during the past 10 years or was available on a repository, web platform, or other user interface). We noted disproportionate representation of developers based at North American and European institutions. Most tools (n=30 [81%]) focused on vector-borne diseases, and more than half (n=16 [53%]) of these tools focused on malaria. Few tools (n=4 [11%]) focused on food-borne, respiratory, or water-borne diseases. The under-representation of tools for estimating outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases represents a major knowledge gap. Just over half (n=20 [54%]) of the tools assessed were described as operationalised, with many freely available online.
气候敏感传染病建模对于公共卫生规划至关重要,它是由一个复杂的软件工具网络支撑的。我们仅确定了 37 个工具,这些工具既包含气候输入,又包含流行病学信息,可在一个软件包中生成疾病风险输出,并且具有透明的描述和验证、命名(以便将来搜索和版本控制),并且可访问(即,代码在过去 10 年内发布,或者可在存储库、网络平台或其他用户界面上获得)。我们注意到,开发者主要来自北美和欧洲的机构,这存在不成比例的代表性。大多数工具(n=30 [81%])侧重于媒介传播疾病,其中超过一半(n=16 [53%])的工具侧重于疟疾。很少有工具(n=4 [11%])侧重于食源性病原体、呼吸道或水源性疾病。用于估计直接传播疾病暴发的工具的代表性不足,这是一个重大的知识空白。只有一半多一点(n=20 [54%])的工具被描述为可操作,其中许多工具可在线免费获得。