Persistent lymphocyte reduction and interleukin-6 levels are independently associated with death in patients with COVID-19.

To investigate the value of the peripheral blood lymphocyte count (LYM) combined with interleukin-6 (IL-6) in predicting disease severity and prognosis in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia. This was a prospective observational cohort study. A total of 109 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia who were admitted to Nanjing First Hospital from December 2022 to January 2023 were enrolled. The patients were divided into two groups based on disease severity: severe (46 patients) and critically ill (63 patients). The clinical data of all patients were collected. The clinical characteristics, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, peripheral blood lymphocyte count, IL-6 level and other laboratory test results were compared between the two groups. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive value of each index for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity; patients were regrouped using the optimal cut-off value of the ROC curve, and the relationship between different LYM and IL-6 levels and the prognosis of patients was analysed. Kaplan‒Meier survival curve analysis was performed; in the different LYM and IL-6 groups, the patients were regrouped based on whether thymosin was used, and the effect of thymosin on patient prognosis was compared between the groups. Patients in the critically ill group were significantly older than patients in the severe group (age: 78 ± 8 vs. 71 ± 17, t = 2.982, P < 0.05), and the proportion of patients with hypertension, diabetes and cerebrovascular disease was significantly higher in the critically ill group than in the severe group (69.8% vs. 45.7%, 38.1% vs. 17.4%, 36.5% vs. 13.0%; χ values, 6.462, 5.495, 7.496, respectively, all P < 0.05). Compared with the severe group, the critically ill group had a higher SOFA score on admission (score: 5.4 ± 3.0 vs. 1.9 ± 1.5, t = 24.269, P < 0.05); IL-6 and procalcitonin (PCT) in the critically ill group were significantly higher than those in the severe group on the first day of admission [288.4 (191.4, 412.9) vs. 513.0 (288.2, 857.4), 0.4 (0.1, 3.2) vs. 0.1 (0.05, 0.2); Z values, 4.000, 4.456, both P < 0.05]. The lymphocyte count continued to decline, and the lymphocyte count on the 5th day (LYM-5d) was still low (0.6 ± 0.4 vs. 1.0 ± 0.4, t = 4.515, both P < 0.05), with statistically significant differences between the two groups. ROC curve analysis indicated that LYM-5d, IL-6 and LYM-5d + IL-6 all had value for predicting SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity; the areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.766, 0.725, and 0.817, respectively, and the 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were 0.676-0.856, 0.631-0.819, and 0.737-0.897, respectively. The optimal cut-off values for LYM-5d and IL-6 were 0.7 × 10/L and 416.4 pg/ml, respectively. LYM-5d + IL-6 had the greatest value in predicting disease severity, and LYM-5d had higher sensitivity and specificity in predicting SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity. Regrouping was performed based on the optimal cut-off values for LYM-5d and IL-6. Comparing the IL-6 ≥ 416.4 pg/ml and LYM-5d < 0.7 × 10/L group with the other group, i.e., patients in the non-low-LYM-5d and high-IL-6 group, patients in the low-LYM-5d and high-IL-6 group had a higher 28-day mortality rate (71.9% vs. 29.9%, χ value 16.352, P < 0.05) and a longer hospital stay, intensive care unit (ICU) stay and mechanical ventilation time (days: 13.7 ± 6.3 vs. 8.4 ± 4.3, 9.0 (7.0, 11.5) vs. 7.5 (4.0, 9.5), 8.0 (6.0, 10.0) vs. 6.0 (3.3, 8.5); t/Z values, 11.657, 2.113, 2.553, respectively, all P < 0.05), as well as a higher incidence of secondary bacterial infection during the disease course (75.0% vs. 41.6%, χ value 10.120, P < 0.05). Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis indicated that the median survival time of patients in the low LYM-5d and high-IL-6 group was significantly shorter than that of patients in the non-low LYM-5d and high-IL-6 group (14.5 ± 1.8 d vs. 22.2 ± 1.1 d, Z value 18.086, P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the curative effect between the thymosin group and the nonthymosin group. LYM and IL-6 levels are closely related to SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity. The prognosis for patients with IL-6 ≥ 416.4 pg/ml at admission and a lymphocyte count < 0.7 × 10 9/L on the 5th day is poor.