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基于多源数据的国家韧性评估与提升:来自“一带一路”沿线国家的证据

National resilience assessment and improvement based on multi-source data: Evidence from countries along the belt and road.

作者信息

Li Jianping, Yuan Jiaxin, Suo Weilan

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China.

Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China.

出版信息

Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2023 Jul;93:103784. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103784. Epub 2023 Jun 13.

Abstract

National resilience is a consensus benchmark to characterize the ability of disaster resistance of a country. The occurrence of various disasters and the ravages of COVID-19 have created urgent needs in assessing and improving the national resilience of countries, especially for countries along the Belt and Road (i.e., B&R countries) with multiple disasters with high frequency and great losses. To accurately depict the national resilience profile, a three-dimensional assessment model based on multi-source data is proposed, where the diversity of losses, fusion utilization of disaster and macro-indicator data, and several refined elements are involved. Using the proposed assessment model, the national resilience of 64 B&R countries is clarified based on more than 13,000 records involving 17 types of disasters and 5 macro-indicators. However, their assessment results are not optimistic, the dimensional resilience are generally trend-synchronized and individual difference in a single dimension, and approximately one-half of countries do not obtain resilience growth over time. To further explore the applicable solutions for national resilience improvement, a coefficient-adjusted stepwise regression model with 20 macro-indicator regressors is developed based on more than 19,000 records. This study provides the quantified model support and a solution reference for national resilience assessment and improvement, which contributes to addressing the global national resilience deficit and promoting the high-quality development of B&R construction.

摘要

国家韧性是表征一个国家抗灾能力的共识性基准。各类灾害的发生以及新冠疫情的肆虐,使得评估和提升各国的国家韧性成为迫切需求,尤其是对于那些面临多种灾害、灾害发生频率高且损失巨大的“一带一路”沿线国家(即“一带一路”国家)。为了准确描绘国家韧性概况,本文提出了一种基于多源数据的三维评估模型,该模型涉及损失的多样性、灾害与宏观指标数据的融合利用以及若干细化要素。利用所提出的评估模型,基于涉及17种灾害和5个宏观指标的13000多条记录,明确了64个“一带一路”国家的国家韧性情况。然而,其评估结果并不乐观,各维度韧性总体上趋势同步且单一维度存在个体差异,约有一半的国家并未随时间实现韧性增长。为了进一步探索提升国家韧性的适用解决方案,基于19000多条记录,开发了一个包含20个宏观指标回归变量的系数调整逐步回归模型。本研究为国家韧性评估与提升提供了量化模型支持和解决方案参考,有助于应对全球国家韧性赤字问题,推动“一带一路”建设高质量发展。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/593b/10261054/e4eefa323e78/gr1_lrg.jpg

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