Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Clearwater Marine Aquarium Research Institute, Clearwater, FL, USA.
Nat Plants. 2023 Jul;9(7):1034-1043. doi: 10.1038/s41477-023-01445-6. Epub 2023 Jun 19.
Although climate change projections indicate significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity, the effects are much more profound and striking in the marine environment. Here we explore how different facets of locally distinctive α- and β-diversity (changes in spatial composition) of seagrasses will respond to future climate change scenarios across the globe and compare their coverage with the existing network of marine protected areas. By using species distribution modelling and a dated phylogeny, we predict widespread reductions in species' range sizes that will result in increases in seagrass weighted and phylogenetic endemism. These projected increases of endemism will result in divergent shifts in the spatial composition of β-diversity leading to differentiation in some areas and the homogenization of seagrass communities in other regions. Regardless of the climate scenario, the potential hotspots of these projected shifts in seagrass α- and β-diversity are predicted to occur outside the current network of marine protected areas, providing new priority areas for future conservation planning that incorporate seagrasses. Our findings report responses of species to future climate for a group that is currently under represented in climate change assessments yet crucial in maintaining marine food chains and providing habitat for a wide range of marine biodiversity.
尽管气候变化预测表明，陆地生物多样性面临着重大威胁，但海洋环境受到的影响更为深远和显著。在这里，我们探讨了不同方面的本地特有 α-和 β-多样性（空间组成的变化）的海草将如何应对全球未来的气候变化情景，并将其覆盖范围与现有的海洋保护区网络进行比较。通过使用物种分布模型和一个有日期的系统发育树，我们预测了物种范围大小的广泛减少，这将导致海草加权和系统发育特有性的增加。这些预测的特有性增加将导致 β-多样性的空间组成发生分歧，导致一些地区的分化和其他地区海草群落的同质化。无论气候情景如何，这些预测的海草 α-和 β-多样性变化的潜在热点预计将出现在现有的海洋保护区网络之外，为未来的保护规划提供了新的重点区域，其中包括海草。我们的研究结果报告了物种对未来气候的反应，这些物种目前在气候变化评估中代表性不足，但对维持海洋食物链和为广泛的海洋生物多样性提供栖息地至关重要。
