Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CDMX, Mexico.
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Commun Biol. 2021 Jan 29;4(1):141. doi: 10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6.
Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems' health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.
对生态系统和生物多样性的影响是气候变化研究的一个突出领域。然而，人们对突然气候变化和气候灾难对它们的影响知之甚少。这类事件发生的概率在很大程度上是未知的，但相关风险可能大到足以影响全球气候政策。两栖动物是生态系统健康的指标，对新的气候条件特别敏感。我们使用最先进的气候模型模拟，对不受抑制的全球变暖以及大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）崩溃对全球六个生物地理区和灭绝风险类别中 2509 种两栖动物分布的影响进行了全球评估。全球变暖的影响是严重的，并因 AMOC 的额外和实质性减弱而大大增强，这表明许多两栖动物物种存在临界点行为。在多个进化枝和生物地理区域，预计气候适宜区的进一步减少。区域组合中的物种损失在多个地区广泛存在，其中新热带、近北极和古北极地区受影响最大。研究结果强调需要扩大对气候灾难对人类和自然系统的后果的现有认识，以正确评估不受抑制的变暖风险和积极缓解战略的好处。
