School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Dali, Yunnan, China.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2023 Jun 22;17(6):e0011317. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011317. eCollection 2023 Jun.
Following its resurgence in 1982, rodent plague has been linked to a wide range of circulation risks in Yunnan Province. The most serious public health concern associated with effective plague control is determining how various ecological variables influence the differential risk of transmission.
We investigated the population dynamics of the hosts and vectors using large-scale epidemiological surveillance data. In a seasonal eco-epidemiological model, we evaluated the impact of ecological conditions on the vectored flea index (VFI) to determine the rate of plague transmission.
The findings revealed a changing species composition in natural foci over time. Additionally, shifting distributional ranges of species by elevation may be vital in modulating the VFI. The model estimates indicate that the dynamic VFI contributes to spatiotemporal variance in transmission.
The VFI could be a critical ecological indicator, allowing for real-time tracking and prompt intervention in the circulation of rodent plague. Understanding eco-epidemiological diversity can provide essential insights into effective responses to future plague resurgence.
1982 年鼠疫卷土重来后，云南省与鼠疫传播相关的各种循环风险广泛相关。与有效控制鼠疫相关的最严重的公共卫生问题是确定各种生态变量如何影响传播的差异风险。
我们使用大规模的流行病学监测数据来研究宿主和媒介的种群动态。在季节性生态流行病学模型中，我们评估了生态条件对带菌跳蚤指数（VFI）的影响，以确定鼠疫传播的速度。
研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，自然疫源地的物种组成发生了变化。此外，物种海拔分布范围的变化可能对 VFI 的调节至关重要。模型估计表明，动态 VFI 导致了传播的时空方差。
VFI 可能是一个关键的生态指标，可以实时跟踪和及时干预鼠疫病的传播。了解生态流行病学的多样性可以为有效应对未来鼠疫的再次爆发提供重要的见解。
