Predictive model for long-term weight recovery after gastrectomy for gastric cancer: an introduction to a web calculator.

BACKGROUND

Weight changes after gastrectomy affect not only quality of life but also prognosis and survival. However, it remains challenging to predict the weight changes of individual patients. Using clinicopathological variables, we built a user-friendly tool to predict weight change after curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

METHODS

The clinical data of 984 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy between 2009 and 2013 were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify variables predictive of postoperative weight change. A nomogram was developed and verified via bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

Age, sex, performance status, body mass index, extent of resection, pathological stage, and postoperative weight change significantly influenced postoperative weight recovery. Postoperative levels of hemoglobin, albumin, ferritin and total iron-binding capacity were significant covariates. The nomogram performed well (concordance index = 0.637); calibration curves indicated appropriate levels of agreement. We developed an online weight prediction calculator based on the nomogram ( http://gc-weightchange.com/en/front/ ).

CONCLUSIONS

The novel, Web-calculator based on the predictive model allows surgeons to explore patient weight patterns quickly. The model identifies patients at high risk for weight loss after gastrectomy; such patients require multidisciplinary medical support.