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金融危机与气候变化

Financial Crises and Climate Change.

作者信息

Jalles João Tovar

机构信息

Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão (ISEG), Universidade de Lisboa, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 Lisboa, Portugal.

Research in Economics and Mathematics (REM) and Research Unit on Complexity and Economics (UECE), ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, Rua Miguel Lupi 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal.

出版信息

Comp Econ Stud. 2023 Feb 25:1-25. doi: 10.1057/s41294-023-00209-7.

DOI:10.1057/s41294-023-00209-7
PMID:37359137
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9959953/
Abstract

Climate change is a big challenge of our time. While there is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, research on how financial crises affect climate change is limited. We empirically use the local projection method to empirically study the impact of past financial crises on climate change vulnerability and resilience indices. Using a dataset covering 178 countries over the period 1995-2019, we observe that resilience to climate change shocks has been increasing and that advanced economies are the least vulnerable. Our econometric results suggest that financial crises (particularly systematic banking ones) tend to lead to a short-run deterioration in a country's resilience to climate change. This effect is more pronounced in developing economies. In downturns, if an economy is hit by a financial crisis, vulnerability to climate change increases.

摘要

气候变化是我们这个时代的一项重大挑战。虽然关于气候变化经济影响的文献不断涌现，但有关金融危机如何影响气候变化的研究却很有限。我们实证运用局部投影法来研究过去的金融危机对气候变化脆弱性和恢复力指数的影响。利用一个涵盖1995年至2019年期间178个国家的数据集，我们观察到对气候变化冲击的恢复力一直在增强，而且发达经济体的脆弱性最小。我们的计量经济学结果表明，金融危机（尤其是系统性银行业危机）往往会导致一个国家对气候变化的恢复力在短期内恶化。这种影响在发展中经济体更为明显。在经济低迷时期，如果一个经济体受到金融危机冲击，其对气候变化的脆弱性就会增加。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/7bd30ae67198/41294_2023_209_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/f9298c2f8bb4/41294_2023_209_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/3384063cd04f/41294_2023_209_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/ef0536e41f0f/41294_2023_209_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/e5a67e490994/41294_2023_209_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/7bd30ae67198/41294_2023_209_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/f9298c2f8bb4/41294_2023_209_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/dc5c0c602c49/41294_2023_209_Fig2a_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/18e2eb912722/41294_2023_209_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/3425e4f400b9/41294_2023_209_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/057892963f66/41294_2023_209_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/82a3d07abeec/41294_2023_209_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/3384063cd04f/41294_2023_209_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/ef0536e41f0f/41294_2023_209_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/e5a67e490994/41294_2023_209_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ee0/9959953/7bd30ae67198/41294_2023_209_Fig10_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Climate damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change in the United States.用于估算美国气候变化经济影响的气候损害函数。
Rev Environ Econ Policy. 2020 Jan 9;14(1):25-43. doi: 10.1093/reep/rez021.
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An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases.控制温室气体的最佳过渡路径。
Science. 1992 Nov 20;258(5086):1315-9. doi: 10.1126/science.258.5086.1315.
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