Teney Céline, Rupieper Li Kathrin
Institute of Sociology, Freie Universität Berlin, Garystr. 55, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Königsworther Platz 1, 30167 Hannover, Germany.
Kolner Z Soz Sozpsychol. 2023 May 8:1-30. doi: 10.1007/s11577-023-00884-5.
We draw on cleavage theory to assess the emergence of a social conflict concerning globalisation-related issues among the German population between 1989 and 2019. We argue that issue salience and opinion polarisation are key conditions for a successful and sustainable political mobilisation of citizens and thus for the emergence of a social conflict. In line with globalisation cleavage theory, we hypothesised that issue salience as well as overall and between-group opinion polarisation on globalisation-related issues have increased over time. Our study considers four globalisation-related issues: immigration, the European Union (EU), economic liberalism, and the environment. While the salience of the EU and economic liberalism issues remained low during the observed period, we found a recent increase in salience for the issues of immigration (since 2015) and the environment (since 2018). Furthermore, our results point to rather stable attitudes on globalisation-related issues among the German population: We did not find any consistent evidence of an increase in overall or between-group polarisation over time. In conclusion, the idea of an emerging conflict around globalisation-related issues among the German population finds very little empirical support.
我们运用分裂理论来评估1989年至2019年间德国民众中围绕全球化相关问题的社会冲突的出现。我们认为，问题显著性和意见两极分化是公民成功且可持续的政治动员的关键条件，因而也是社会冲突出现的关键条件。根据全球化分裂理论，我们假设与全球化相关问题的问题显著性以及总体和群体间意见两极分化会随时间增加。我们的研究考虑了四个与全球化相关的问题：移民、欧盟、经济自由主义和环境。虽然在观察期内欧盟和经济自由主义问题的显著性一直较低，但我们发现移民问题（自2015年起）和环境问题（自2018年起）的显著性最近有所增加。此外，我们的结果表明德国民众对全球化相关问题的态度相当稳定：我们没有发现任何随时间总体或群体间两极分化增加的一致证据。总之，德国民众中围绕全球化相关问题出现冲突这一观点几乎没有得到实证支持。
