Cui Mingjie, Zhang Xinhuan, Zhang Yufang, Yang Degang, Huo Jinwei, Xia Fuqiang
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.
University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Foods. 2023 Jun 11;12(12):2345. doi: 10.3390/foods12122345.
Achieving the goal of zero hunger within the goal of sustainable development requires improving the resilience of food systems to various types of risk shocks; food systems have shown significant vulnerability to COVID-19 outbreaks and transmission. By analyzing the impact of China's lockdown policy and food security emergency policy in 2020 on food prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, we can clarify the role of policy intervention in enhancing the resilience of the food system, which can provide guidance, using China's experience, for dealing with global food safety emergencies in the future. Firstly, we selected Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong as food-consuming areas, and Shandong, Henan, and Hubei as food-producing areas. We also collected food security emergency policy data from the Chinese government website during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondly, a difference-in-difference method was used to observe that Chinese cabbage and pork prices in the main food-producing areas and food-consuming areas rose more obviously after the adoption of lockdown policy, and Chinese cabbage and pork prices in the food-consuming areas increased more obviously than those in food-producing areas. However, staple food prices have not risen significantly. Thirdly, the response of four kinds of food prices to the food security emergency policy is analyzed quantitatively and graphically using the food price volatility index and food price increase rate; we observed that the response of food prices to the food security emergency policy is related to the food types and regions. For food types, the fluctuation degree and increase in Chinese cabbage and pork prices decreased significantly after the adoption of the food security emergency policy. For regions, when the food security emergency policy was adopted, the food prices in the main food-consuming areas fluctuated more obviously than those in food-producing areas. Finally, we found that the implementation of the transport policy and the joint supply emergency policy in the main producing and consuming areas has played a very significant and positive role in stabilizing food prices.
在可持续发展目标框架内实现零饥饿目标，需要提高粮食系统对各类风险冲击的抵御能力；粮食系统已显示出对新冠疫情爆发及传播的显著脆弱性。通过分析中国2020年的封城政策和粮食安全应急政策在新冠疫情期间对食品价格的影响，我们可以厘清政策干预在增强粮食系统韧性方面所发挥的作用，这能够以中国的经验为未来应对全球食品安全突发事件提供指导。首先，我们选取北京、上海和广东作为食品消费地区，山东、河南和湖北作为食品生产地区。我们还收集了新冠疫情期间中国政府网站上的粮食安全应急政策数据。其次，采用双重差分法观察到，实施封城政策后，主要食品生产地区和食品消费地区的大白菜和猪肉价格上涨更为明显，且食品消费地区的大白菜和猪肉价格涨幅比食品生产地区更为显著。然而，主食价格并未显著上涨。第三，利用食品价格波动指数和食品价格上涨率，对四种食品价格对粮食安全应急政策的反应进行了定量和图形分析；我们观察到，食品价格对粮食安全应急政策的反应与食品种类和地区有关。就食品种类而言，实施粮食安全应急政策后，大白菜和猪肉价格的波动程度和涨幅显著下降。就地区而言，实施粮食安全应急政策时，主要食品消费地区的食品价格波动比食品生产地区更为明显。最后，我们发现，在主要生产和消费地区实施运输政策和联合供应应急政策，对稳定食品价格发挥了非常显著的积极作用。
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