Paterson Robert Russell Monteith
Department of Biological Engineering, Gualtar Campus, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal.
Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia.
Plants (Basel). 2023 Jun 7;12(12):2236. doi: 10.3390/plants12122236.
Palm oil is a very important commodity which will be required well into the future. However, the consequences of growing oil palm (OP) are often detrimental to the environment and contribute to climate change. On the other hand, climate change stress will decrease the production of palm oil by causing mortality and ill health of OP, as well as reducing yields. Genetically modified OP (mOP) may be produced in the future to resist climate change stress, although it will take a long time to develop and introduce, if they are successfully produced at all. It is crucial to understand the benefits mOP may bring for resisting climate change and increasing the sustainability of the palm oil industry. This paper employs modeling of suitable climate for OP using the CLIMEX program in (a) Indonesia and Malaysia, which are the first and second largest growers of OP respectively, and (b) Thailand and Papua New Guinea, which are much smaller growers. It is useful to compare these countries in terms of future palm oil production and what benefits planting mOP may bring. Uniquely, narrative models are used in the current paper to determine how climate change will affect yields of conventional OP and mOP. The effect of climate change on the mortality of mOP is also determined for the first time. The gains from using mOP were moderate, but substantial, if compared to the current production of other continents or countries. This was especially the case for Indonesia and Malaysia. The development of mOP requires a realistic appreciation of what benefits may accrue.
棕榈油是一种非常重要的商品，在可预见的未来都将有需求。然而，种植油棕的后果往往对环境有害，并加剧气候变化。另一方面，气候变化压力会导致油棕死亡和健康状况不佳，以及产量下降，从而降低棕榈油产量。未来可能会培育出转基因油棕（mOP）来抵御气候变化压力，不过即便最终能成功培育出来，其研发和推广也需要很长时间。了解mOP在抵御气候变化和提高棕榈油产业可持续性方面可能带来的益处至关重要。本文利用CLIMEX程序对油棕适宜气候进行建模，涉及（a）印度尼西亚和马来西亚，它们分别是油棕种植面积第一和第二大的国家，以及（b）泰国和巴布亚新几内亚，这两个国家的油棕种植面积要小得多。比较这些国家未来的棕榈油产量以及种植mOP可能带来的益处很有意义。独特的是，本文使用叙述模型来确定气候变化将如何影响传统油棕和mOP的产量。同时，首次确定了气候变化对mOP死亡率的影响。与其他各大洲或国家目前的产量相比，使用mOP的收益虽不显著，但也颇为可观。印度尼西亚和马来西亚尤其如此。mOP的发展需要对可能产生的益处有切实的认识。
