Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Translational Data Analytics Institute, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
Epidemics. 2023 Sep;44:100700. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100700. Epub 2023 Jun 16.
Mumps is a vaccine-preventable, reemerging, and highly transmissible infectious disease. Widespread vaccination dramatically reduced cases; however, case counts have been increasing over the past 20 years. To provide a quantitative overview of historical mumps dynamics that can act as baseline information to help identify causes of mumps reemergence, we analyzed timeseries of cases reported from 1923 to 1932 in the United States. During that time, 239,230 mumps cases were reported in 70 cities. Larger cities reported annual epidemics and smaller cities reported intermittent, sporadic outbreaks. The critical community size above which transmission continuously occurred was likely between 365,583 and 781,188 individuals but could range as high as 3,376,438 individuals. Mumps cases increased as city size increased, suggesting density-dependent transmission. Using a density-dependent SEIR model, we calculated a mean effective reproductive number (R) of 1.2. R varied by city and over time, with periodic high values that could characterize short periods of very high transmission known as superspreading events. Case counts most often peaked in March, with higher-than-average transmission from December through April and showed a correlation with weekly births. While certain city pairs in Midwestern states had synchronous outbreaks, most outbreaks were less synchronous and not driven by distance between cities. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term infectious disease surveillance data and will inform future studies on mumps reemergence and control.
流行性腮腺炎是一种可通过疫苗预防的、重新出现的、高度传染性疾病。广泛接种疫苗显著减少了病例；然而，在过去的 20 年中，病例数一直在增加。为了提供对历史上流行性腮腺炎动态的定量概述，作为帮助确定流行性腮腺炎再次出现原因的基线信息，我们分析了 1923 年至 1932 年期间美国报告的病例时间序列。在此期间，美国 70 个城市报告了 239230 例流行性腮腺炎病例。较大的城市报告了年度流行，较小的城市报告了间歇性、散发性暴发。传播持续发生的临界社区规模可能在 365583 至 781188 人之间，但也可能高达 3376438 人。随着城市规模的增加，流行性腮腺炎病例也在增加，表明存在密度依赖性传播。使用密度依赖 SEIR 模型，我们计算出平均有效繁殖数（R）为 1.2。R 因城市而异，随时间变化，周期性出现高值，这可能是非常高的传播期短时间内的特征，称为超级传播事件。病例数通常在 3 月达到峰值，12 月至 4 月期间的传播率高于平均水平，与每周出生人数相关。虽然中西部各州的某些城市对存在同步暴发，但大多数暴发的同步性较低，不受城市之间距离的驱动。这项工作表明了长期传染病监测数据的重要性，并将为未来有关流行性腮腺炎再次出现和控制的研究提供信息。
